NEW BRUNSWICK 2018 :: KortJackson.org

The following parties are contesting the New Brunswick Legislative Assembly election in 2018:

Party Name	Leader	Leader's Riding	Seats at Dissolution
New Brunswick Liberal Association	Brian Gallant	Shediac Bay-Dieppe	24
Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick	Blaine Higgs	Quispamsis	22
Green Party of New Brunswick	David Coon	Fredericton South	1
New Brunswick New Democratic Party	Jennifer McKenzie	Not in Parliament (contesting Saint John Harbor)	n/a
People's Alliance of New Brunswick	Kris Austin	Not in Parliament (contesting Fredericton-Grand Lake)	n/a
K.I.S.S. NB Political Party	Gerald Bourque	Not in Parliament (contesting Fredericton-Grand Lake)	n/a

The following ridings are divided into regions, then alphabetical/directional. A riding in italics indicates the incumbent did not stand for renomination and is retiring OR the seat was vacant at the time of the dropping of the writs (election call).

Seat Name	Region	Current Party	KJ's Prediction
Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint Isidore	Northern	Liberal	Liberal
Bathurst West-Beresford	Northern	Liberal	Liberal
Campbellton-Dalhousie	Northern	Vacant	Liberal (gain)
Caraquet	Northern	Liberal	Liberal
Restigouche-Chaleur	Northern	Liberal	Liberal
Restigouche West	Northern	Liberal	Liberal
Shippagan-Lameque-Miscou	Northern	Liberal	Liberal
Tracadie-Sheila	Northern	Liberal	Liberal
Miramichi	Miramichi	Liberal	Liberal
Miramichi Bay-Neguac	Miramichi	Liberal	Liberal
Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin	Miramichi	PC	PC
Albert	Southeastern	PC	PC
Dieppe	Southeastern	Liberal	Liberal
Gagetown-Petitcodiac	Southeastern	PC	PC
Kent North	Southeastern	Liberal	Liberal
Kent South	Southeastern	Liberal	Liberal
Memramcook-Tantramar	Southeastern	Liberal	Liberal
Moncton Centre	Southeastern	Independent	Liberal (gain)
Moncton Northwest	Southeastern	PC	Liberal (gain)
Moncton East	Southeastern	Liberal	Liberal
Moncton South	Southeastern	Liberal	Liberal
Moncton Southwest	Southeastern	PC	Liberal (gain)
Riverview	Southeastern	PC	PC
Shediac-Beaubassin-Cap-Pele	Southeastern	Liberal	Liberal
Shediac Bay-Dieppe	Southeastern	Liberal	Liberal
Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West	Southern	Liberal	Liberal
Hampton	Southern	PC	PC
Kings Centre	Southern	PC	Liberal (gain)
Portland-Simonds	Southern	PC	PC
Quispamsis	Southern	PC	PC
Rothesay	Southern	PC	PC
Saint Croix	Southern	Liberal	Liberal
Saint John East	Southern	PC	Liberal (gain)
Saint John Harbour	Southern	Liberal	Liberal
Saint John Lancaster	Southern	PC	Liberal (gain)
Sussex-Fundy-St. Martins	Southern	PC	PC
Carleton-York	Fredericton Area	PC	PC
Fredericton-Grand Lake	Fredericton Area	PC	People's (gain)
Fredericton-North	Fredericton Area	Liberal	Liberal
Fredericton South	Fredericton Area	Green	Green
Fredericton West-Hanwell	Fredericton Area	PC	PC
Fredericton-York	Fredericton Area	PC	Liberal (gain)
New Maryland-Sunbury	Fredericton Area	PC	Liberal (gain)
Oromocto-Lincoln-Fredericton	Fredericton Area	PC	Liberal (gain)
Carleton	Upper River Valley	PC	PC
Carleton-Victoria	Upper River Valley	Liberal	Liberal
Edmundston-Madawaska Centre	Upper River Valley	Vacant	Liberal (gain)
Madawaska Les Lacs-Edmundston	Upper River Valley	Liberal	Liberal
Victoria-La Vallee	Upper River Valley	Liberal	Liberal

Overall Prediction: Liberal Majority Government
Liberal	PC	Green	NDP	People's	Ind/K.I.S.S.
35	12	1	0	1	0
11	10	n/c	n/c	1	1
Assessment: The Grits (Liberal) are well ahead in most polls during the entire duration of the term, and have led in all but two polls since January, with polls ranging from a 1.4 point lead to an astounding 20 points in 2018 (hint, the 20 point poll was in late August). The two polls that the PC's led by are by 1.3 and 8 percent (the same pollster later repolled three months later and found the Grits ahead by 8 instead). Chances are the Liberals manage a nice 8-10 point win, enabling them to shore up existing marginal ridings, gain two vacant seats, oust their problematic Speaker turned Independent and take a swath of PC seats. The Progressive Conservatives will drop to a lower seat count than the Grits were at in 2010 after getting shellacked, but will probably avoid ultimate disaster. The Greens will hold their lone riding, and the People's Alliance will take advantage of an open seat opportunity to get into the Legislative Assembly.