Welcome to "THE VERDICT: Tasmania 2018" homepage, hosted here
at
kortjackson.org! Here you will find information regarding the election
that has been proscribed by state law (and the date chosen by the
premier) to take place on March 3, 2018 to reconstitute the Tasmanian
House of Assembly. The House of Assembly is comprised of twenty-five
(25) members, with each division electing five (5) members each. The
divisions are coterminous with the boundaries of the federal divisions
of Tasmania, and share the same names: Bass, Braddon, Denison, Franlin
and Lyons. To obtain a majority, a party needs thirteen (13) seats to
gain majority government. However, as Tasmania is one of two Australian
polities to use the Hare-Clark System (see the separate page link
above), Tasmania has usually elected narrow majority governments or
voted a Assembly with no official control - a hung parliament,
requiring deals to secure (at a minimum) confidence of the government
and supply (the budget) to govern.
So, how did we get to this
election?
In 2010, The Tasmanian Labor government had been in office since 1998
in majority government. Jim Bacon proved to be a fairly popular
Premier, and won a second mandate in 2002, only to step down in 2004
due to being diagnosed with lung cancer, a disease that would lay claim
to his life just mere months after his resignation. Paul Lennon,
elected by the ALP parliamentary caucus to be the new premier, did not
hold the same popularity as his predecessor, and pollsters and pundits
alike though Labor would struggle to win another term in 2006. To their
suprise, Lennon pulled off a stunning upset, winning a third majority
government mandate. However, scandals and a dramatic reduction in his
popularity rating forced Paul Lennon to step down, and the ALP caucus
selected David Bartlett as Premier.
Bartlett, in his first go around as the Premier of Tasmania at the 2010
election saw a loss of four seats: three to the Liberals (the
conservative party) and one of the Greens. The ALP majority government
was gone, and the Assembly was officially back in hung parliament
territory for the first time since the 1996 election. Initially,
Bartlett contacted the Governor of Australia (who is required to
commission the Premier after every election) to request he commission
the opposition leader (Will Hodgman of the Liberals) to be the new
Premier, as although Labor and Liberal was tied with ten seats each
(Greens held the other five), the Libs got more votes. The Governor
declined Bartlett's request and commissioned Bartlett to form
government. Bartlett eventually succeeded in forming a Labor-Green
coalition government (with the Greens in ministerial roles). Barlett
would resign in early 2011, with his Deputy Premier Lara Giddings
becoming Tasmania's first female Premier.
While Lara Giddings did decently at points as Premier, the length of
the Labor Government (16 years by the time the 2014 elections were
held) as well as the surging "better Premier" ratings of Will Hodgman
(of the Hodgman dynasty in Tasmania, consisting of his grandfather,
father and himself as members of the Parliament of Tasmania throughout
the years) eventually led pundits to believe that the 2014 election
would bring a change in government for the first time since 1998.
Giddings' ratings continued to sour, and as the election date
approached, she opted to dissolve the formal minority government
coalition and go into elections alone without a government
pre-arrangement. The 2014 election saw the Tasmanian Liberals gain five
seats to fifteen (15) seats, more than enough for a majority. Labor was
reduced to seven seats, the Greens to three. While the Libs only had
two seats more than the bare majority, fifteen seats is considered to
be well in landslide territory.
With few exceptions, the Hodgman government has governed without major
controversy, and Labor changed leaders twice (Giddings resigned after
her defeat as Premier, and Bryan Green resigned just a little over
three years as opposition leader, leading to Rebecca White becoming the
new Labor leader and Opposition leader in Tasmania. Under Rebecca
White, Labor's polling improved, leading the ruling Liberals to
postpone calling an early election until the Labor surge subsided.
Until the very end of the 2018 campaign, the Tasmanian Liberals have
ran a solid campaign with few misteps (though their last minute
non-public disclosure to relax the Tasmanian gun laws might partially
backfire), whereas the Labor campaign was riddled with careless misteps
and errors.
Tasmania's dominant history of electing Labor to government is so
ingrained in the political culture, only one Liberal Premier has ever
enjoyed back-to-back majority governments. But if the polling is to be
believed, Will Hodgman is about to double that exclusive club... but
only just, and a majority government is not necessarily certain for the
Libs.
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