States Gubernatorial Seats To be Contested
State	Candidates	Write-up	Prediction
Alabama Incumbent running.	Gov. Kay Ivey (R) Mayor Walt Maddox (D)	In 2014, incumbent Governor Bob Bentley won re-election, and he was set to be term limited in 2018. However, a major sex scandal broke out and facing impeachment, he resigned. Lt. Gov. Kay Ivey became Governor, and has done a decent job. Walt Maddox recieved plaudits for his handling of the Tuscaloosa tornado and is one of the strongest candidates that the Dems can be put foward in this ruby-red state. Ivey should win this one, however.	Kay Ivey (R) R Hold
Alaska Incumbent suspended campaign.	Gov. Bill Walker (I) Mike Dunleavy (R) Mark Begich (D)	Bill Walker was first elected in 2014, narrowly defeating incumbent Sean Parnell (R). Just a few weeks befor the election, Alaska's Lt. Gov Bryan Mallott resigned (from both office and Walker's campaign) and Walker's poll numbers didn't improve. He opted to suspend his campaign and offer his support to former U.S. Senator Mark Begich. Dunleavy continues to lead the polls, but Begich has been closing the gap. If Walker voters cross over to support Begich, he may just make it.	Mark Begich (D) D GAIN
Arizona Incumbent running.	Gov. Doug Ducey (R) David Garcia (D)	Just a few months ago, David Garcia was leading Doug Ducey in the polls, however Arizona's booming economy and Ducey's ability to avoid much controversy has led him to regain the lead and now leads solidly, all while the Senate race consumes the energy of the voter's attention. It may get close, but Ducey should keep his job.	Doug Ducey (R) R Hold
Arkansas Incumbent running.	Gov. Asa Hutchison (R) Jared Henderson (D)	Asa Hutchison has been leading in the polls and solidly so. A loss here would be an absolute shocker and an indicator the night will be more dire for the GOP than expected.	Asa Hutchison (R) R Hold
California Incumbent term-limited.	Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) John Cox (R)	California has been strongly in favor of Democratic candidates statewide and John Cox has failed to gain traction or excitement, in fact even causing controversy. Gavin Newsom should earn the top job.	Gavin Newsom (D) D Hold
Colorado Incumbent term-limited.	Rep. Jared Polis (D) Treas. Walker Stapleton (R)	John Hickenlooper is modestly popular and should he had been eligible for election in 2018 might actually win a third term. Alas, he is term-limited. While Colorado is a purplish state, it is now a purplish-blue state. Jared Polis has not created much controversy and will likely become the first openly gay man elected Governor.	Jared Polis (D) D Hold
Connecticut Incumbent retiring.	Ned Lamont (D) Bob Stefanowski (R)	Dan Malloy is one of the most unpopular Governors in the US currently, and wisely chose two close elections were enough. Ned Lamont won the Dem nom after several electoral setbacks and although Malloy hasn't boosted his approval ratings much, Lamont leads enough in the polls that he should finally taste statewide electoral success.	Ned Lamont (D) D Hold
Florida Incumbent term-limited.	Ron DeSantis (R) Mayor Andrew Gillum (D)	Florida, Florida, Florida. When Tim Russert wrote this down in 2000, it was a harbinger of things to come. In presidential elections, Florida is notoriously swingy and goes for a candidate by just a few points. In midterm years, Florida is still competitive, but as Colorado is purplish-blue, Florida is purplish-red. Rick Scott is term-limited and going for a U.S. Senate seat. Ron DeSantis beat the fairly popular Ag. Commissioner Adam Putnam in a bit of a surprise as Andrew Gillum won in a shocker for the Dem nom. The election was set to be a barnburner... until DeSantis kicked over the proverbial kerosene lamp by telling voters "Not to monkey this up." (Oh by the way, Andrew Gillum is black.)  DeSantis has remained competitive but has been reeling ever since, and voters may have decided 20 years of GOP leadership in the Governor's chair is enough, making Gillum the first black governor of Florida.	Andrew Gillum (D) D GAIN
Georgia Incumbent term-limited.	SoS Brian Kemp (R)  Stacey Abrams (D)	This election has turned into a barnburner. Brian Kemp shocked Casey Cagle in the GOP primary and then released ads that showed him pointing a rifle at a "potential suitor" of one of his daughters. Oh, it was also loaded! Stacey Abrams (who would be the first female black governor of any US state) has ran a strong campaign and remained rather sane to Kemp's bombastic language and even using his office to invalidate registrations (of which a court order has since told him to stop). Georgia is a 50% +1 state, which means this might go into extra time (a runoff). However, Kemp's increasing antics (including accusing Dems of vote tampering with no evidence to present) appear to show he's not acting like a assured winner here. Also, despite his antics, voter turnout has been insane in Georgia. Abrams makes it through, but only just.	Stacey Abrams (D) D GAIN
Hawaii Incumbent running.	Gov. David Ige (D) St. Rep. Andria Tupola (R)	David Ige had to see off a strong primary challenge by Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, but surprised many when he did it with relative style. In Hawaii, the Republican bench is essentially non-existent: The entire State Senate is in Democratic hands and only 5 GOP officeholders call the State House home. One decided to sacrifice her seat to go for the Governorship. Polling shows that wasn't a smart move.	David Ige (D) D Hold
Idaho Incumbent retiring.	Lt. Gov. Brad Little (R) St. Rep. Paulette Jordan (D)	Paulette Jordan would make history if she won, becoming the first Native American elected Governor. Despite making a bit of a splash, Jordan hasn't been able to match Brad Little, who has been generally non-controversial and a decent political fit for the conservative state of Idaho. Lt. Governor Little is about to become Governor Little.	Brad Little (R) R Hold
Illinois Incumbent running.	Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) J.B. Pritzker (D)	Bruce Rauner surprised many when he won in 2014, defeating Pat Quinn to take the Governor's chair. Since then, he's been locked in combat trying to keep Illinois afloat while also dealing with Mike Madigan (arguably the most powerful Speaker in Illinois state history). Rauner's choices to try to balance the books have been generally very unpopular and his combative attitude has turned off moderate voters. His somewhat decent stances were in turn ruled too moderate and he had trouble putting away a conservative challenger for the GOP nom. J.B. Pritzker isn't perfect either, but he isn't Rauner, and for voters, that is plenty enough.	J.B. Pritzker (D) D GAIN
Iowa Incumbent running.	Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) Fred Hubbell (D)	Governor Terry Branstad was a popular Governor that won a total of four terms in the 80s and 90s and made a comeback to win two more in 2010 and 2014. Given the solidity of his name (which only Chuck Grassley holds more sway) in Iowa, he could have ran in 2018 and won again. But Donald Trump decided he needed Branstad as the Ambassador to China. Branstad got confirmed, he resigned as Governor and Kim Reynolds got the job. Reynolds hasn't been terrible, but her approval ratings are only either slightly under water or slightly above water, and Iowan voters are pissed off at Trump and other office holders (here's looking at you, Steve King) for a plethora of reasons. Hubbell is rather boring and laid back, but maybe that's just what Iowans want.	Fred Hubbell (D) D GAIN
Kansas Incumbent lost renomination.	SoS. Kris Kobach (R) St. Sen. Laura Kelly (D) Greg Orman (I)	Kansas is a rather conservative state. In normal years, it should not be competitive, period. However, Sam Brownback won the governor's chair in 2010 and proceeded to try a massive tax cut. Kansas's financial shape, no surprise, imploded. Brownback narrowly held on in 2014 thanks to the GOP wave, but voters ousted a bunch of conservative lawmakers, allowing for a more moderate GOP + Democratic coalition to override Brownback and mitigate some of the cuts. Brownback was tapped by Trump for a position and after getting confirmed, resigned, leaving Jeff Colyer to take over. Colyer wasn't Brownback, but he was his running mate, however Colyer proved to be a bit more moderate than Brownback. Kris Kobach decided that was too much of a sin and ran against Colyer, narrowly defeating him in a primary. Kobach's campaign has ticked off Kansas voters, and his pyrotechnic political proclivities has led numerous GOP leaders to endorse his opponent Laura Kelly. The race is incredibly close, and Kelly might just pull a surprise here.	Laura Kelly (D) D GAIN
Maine Incumbent term-limited.	Shawn Moody (R) Atty. Gen. Janet Mills (D) Treas. Terry Hayes (I) Alan Caron (I)	Maine tends to lean Dem, but recent years saw Paul LePage win two terms as Maine Governor. They have not been a lovely eight years, with LePage engaging in controversy on the regular. Janet Mills appears to hold a lead, and Maine might flip from divided governor to a Democratic trifecta (Gov+State House+State Senate).	Janet Mills (D) D GAIN
Maryland Incumbent running.	Gov. Larry Hogan (R) Ben Jealous (D)	Normally, Maryland tends to be a solidly Democratic state. The state House and state Senate are Democratic supermajorities, and only one GOP officeholder currently holds a U.S. House district. But Hogan defied the odds to win in 2014 and has been a fairly moderate Governor that seems to match the state fairly well for a Republican. He's also avoided controversy and tends to be well liked (plus his successful battle with cancer gained him considerable goodwill on all sides). Jealous is also a strong candidate, but this isn't going to be his time. Hogan would be term limited in 2022, providing Jealous another shot to get into the Governor's chair.	Larry Hogan (R) R Hold
Massachusetts Incumbent running.	Gov. Charlie Baker (R) Jay Gonzalez (D)	Massachusetts is also a solidly Dem state, and in this case, Dems hold all the U.S. House seats, both Senate seats and supermajorities in the state legislative chambers. But Baker also pulled out a win in 2014, and proved himself moderate and popular with Massachusetts voters. He's also been a regular foil to Trump, something voters of all political stripes like in MA. A exceptionally huge wave might knock Baker out of the chair, but he seems safe to win another term.	Charlie Baker (R) R Hold
Michigan Incumbent term-limited.	Atty. Gen. Bill Schuette (R)  Gretchen Whitmer (D)	Rick Snyder is term limited, and if he could run again... he would be crunched. Michigan is in a big mess, with the Flint water crisis continuing on, MI having budget woes and Detroit just now beginning to slowly inch forward in the right direction. Gretchen Whitmer has made a name with her iconic phrase "fix the damn roads" and Schuette has tied himself to Trump. MI voters aren't too fond of Trump right now. Whitmer likely wins this one.	Gretchen Whitmer D GAIN
Minnesota Incumbent retiring.	Rep. Tim Walz (D) Cty. Comm. Jeff Johnson (R)	Mark Dayton narrowly won twice here in 2010 and 2014, but has generally earned good ratings and has earned the respect of MN voters. He could have ran again in 2018 (no term limits in MN), but he decided not to. Tim Walz is a fairly moderate politician and well liked, whereas Jeff Johnson was a past candidate for Senate in 2014 and got smashed by Al Franken in a year otherwise favorable to the GOP. Walz holds the seat.	Tim Walz D Hold
Nevada Incumbent term-limited.	Atty. Gen. Adam Laxalt (R) Cty. Comm. Steve Sisolak (D) Ryan Bundy (I)	Gov. Brian Sandoval is highly popular, and is well liked in Nevada. Despite the political climate, Sandoval could easily win several more terms, had not the Nevada constitution term-limited him for life to two terms. Curiously though, Gov. Sandoval has not endorsed the GOP candidate Adam Laxalt, tending to keep his distance, and for good reason. Laxalt is far more conservative (and Laxalt would have made his grandfather Paul look fairly liberal) and also controversial. Steve Sisolak has been a surprisingly good candidate despite being from the Clark County Commission (which tends to be a political jinx). Sisolak may just pull through with a strong effort in Democratic Clark county as well as a independent candidate in Ryan Bundy (yes, of the Bundy family that clashed with the government) with an ax to grind regarding Adam Laxalt not being conservative enough.	Steve Sisolak (D) D GAIN
Nebraska Incumbent running.	Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) St. Sen. Bob Krist (D)	Nebraska is a fairly conservative state, and Pete Ricketts hasn't been too controversial of a Governor. Bob Krist "switched" parties (the NE legislature is non-partisan, but Krist was known as a Republican) to run against Ricketts but hasn't gained traction.	Pete Ricketts (R) R Hold
New Hampshire Incumbent running.	Gov. Chris Sununu (R) Molly Kelly (D)	New Hampshire is one of two states (Vermont is the other) in which Governors are still elected to two-year terms. Chris Sununu won in a close contest in 2016 and is running for a second term. While polls have closed in a bit, New Hampshire does not normally throw out Governors after just a single term. (Craig Benson was the last in 2004, and he was politically too extra for NH voters). Sununu is a decent fit, and should surivive.	Chris Sununu (R) R Hold
New Mexico Incumbent term-limited.	Rep. Michelle L. Grisham (D) Rep. Steve Pearce (R)	Susana Martinez is term limited after two terms, and so an open seat has occured in a state that leans Democratic. Polls have shown Grisham relatively well ahead of Pearce, and its likely New Mexico returns to form, and potentially a Democratic trifecta.	M. Lujan-Grisham (D) D GAIN
New York Incumbent running.	Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) Marc Molinaro (R)	Andrew Cuomo is attempting a third term. Molinaro hasn't been the strongest opponent and despite leaving a bad taste in some NY voters mouths, Cuomo has raised considerable opposition to Trump, which voters see as a plus. He's in good shape to get that third term.	Andrew Cuomo (D) D Hold
Ohio Incumbent term-limited.	Atty. Gen. Mike DeWine (R) Richard Cordray (D)	John Kasich is term limited, and now an open seat is in play in Ohio. DeWine is generally popular, but Trump is beginning to be a drag on most of Ohio (except SE Ohio, where he's still solidly popular). Cordray is generally liked as well as DeWine, and this election has swung in favor of either or at various points. But where it counts, the momentum appears to be with Cordray.	Richard Cordray (D) D GAIN
Oklahoma Incumbent term-limited.	Kevin Stitt (R) Drew Edmondson (D)	Oklahoma is very conservative. It's a state that sometimes has all its counties go to the GOP presidential candidate. But something is amiss in Oklahoma. The budget is a mess, and education funding is in such sorry shape that some schools had to go to four day weeks. The current Governor is not popular at all, with voters ousting several incumbents who voted against repairing the budget for education and increasing teacher pay. Kevin Stitt is a political outsider, but wasn't the strongest candidate the GOP could put up (that was Mick Cornett, the fairly popular Mayor of Oklahoma City). The Dems got the best candidate they could find in Drew Edmondson, and polling has been tight. It is Oklahoma after all, and Stitt normally should win, but voters seem pissed off enough to do something drastic. Like elect a Democratic Governor.	Drew Edmondson (D) D GAIN
Oregon Incumbent running.	Gov. Kate Brown (D) St. Rep. Knute Buehler (R)	Kate Brown has been a decent governor in Oregon and avoided most controversial issues. But Oregon has been fairly close in the past few Gubernatorial elections, and Knute Buehler has been portraying himself as a moderate. This (besides Alaska) is one of the GOP's few attempts at offense here, but Brown should prevail.	Kate Brown (D) D Hold
Pennsylvania Incumbent running.	Gov. Tom Wolf (D) St. Sen. Scott Wagner (R)	Tom Wolf has had a tough four years, but his approval rating has been improving, Scott Wagner has suggested stomping Wolf's head in for poltical attention and PA voters are pissed at Trump. In another midterm cycle and with a saner candidate, Wolf might be in trouble, but not now.	Tom Wolf (D) D Hold
Rhode Island Incumbent running.	Gov. Gina Raimondo (D) Mayor Allan Fung (R) Joe Trillo (I) Bill Gilbert (Mod.)	Gina Raimondo's approval rating has not been good at all, and she narrowly won the job in 2014. Allan Fung is trying again, but the lean of the state plus the political climate likely leads to Raimondo keeping her job.	Gina Raimondo (D) D Hold
South Carolina Incumbent running.	Gov. Henry D. McMaster (R) St. Rep. James Smith (D)	Henry McMaster is a "inheriting" Governor, having got the job after Nikki Haley got confirmed as the UN representative for the US. McMaster has had a bit of a tough go in the primaries, but polling still shows him in position to win. He probably makes it.	Henry McMaster (R) R Hold
South Dakota Incumbent term-limited.	Rep. Kristi Noem(R) St. Sen. Billie Sutton (D)	South Dakota is conservative, and Kristi Noem could become the first female Governor of the state. However, Billie Sutton has ran a nearly flawless campaign and his story from Rodeo champ to paraplegic to common sense politician has transformed the race into a real contest. Polling actually shows Sutton either in a tie or just ahead. As Heitkamp was in 2012 to North Dakota, Sutton may just be for South Dakota in 2018.	Billie Sutton (D) D GAIN
Tennessee Incumbent term-limited.	Bill Lee (R) Karl Dean (D)	Tennesee has a competitive U.S. Senate race, but the energy has not translated to the Gubernatorial race. Karl Dean has a solid record of governance as the Mayor of Nashville, but Bill Lee won a deeply contested primary for the GOP nom and quickly took the lead.	Bill Lee (R) R Hold
Texas Incumbent running.	Gov. Greg Abbott (R) Lupe Valdez (D)	Like Tennessee, Texas has a competitive U.S. Senate race. However, Greg Abbott is fairly popular and has skillfully navigated controversy while building a war chest even the Donald may not want to fight against if push ever came to shove. Lupe Valdez would be the first openly lesbian governor in the United States, but that accomplishment probably won't happen this time around.	Greg Abbott (R) R Hold
Vermont Incumbent running.	Gov. Phil Scott (R) Christine Hallquist (D)	Vermont is a reliably Democratic state (and home to none other than Bernie Sanders), but Phil Scott won a solid victory in 2016 and has been a moderate to slightly liberal Republican. Vermont also elects Governors to two year terms, and so Phil Scott is up again. Christine Hallquist would be America's first ever transgender governor, and she's somewhat wittled the gap, but Scott should get over 50% and keep the job without relying on the General Assembly to break the impasse (which happens if no candidate wins outright).	Phil Scott (R) R Hold
Wisconsin Incumbent running.	Gov. Scott Walker (R) SoI Tony Evers (D)	Scott Walker is going for a third term... and Wisconsinites appear to have tired of him. He narrowly won in 2010, survived a recall in 2012 and won re-election in 2014. His presidential run in 2016 was a quick fizzle out and voters weren't too happy with that choice. Tony Evers has been a solid Superintendent of Instruction for Wisconsin and has ran a strong campaign that has kept Walker on his toes, and sometimes behind in the polls. Like Cuomo, voters don't care much for Walker. Unlike Cuomo, looks like Walker is done.	Tony Evers (D) D GAIN
Wyoming Incumbent term-limited.	Treas. Mark Gordon (R) Mary Throne (D)	Wyoming is very conservative. While Mary Throne has been a tireless campaigner, she hasn't caught on, and Mark Gordon looks set for a promotion.	Mark Gordon (R) R Hold
Prediction: Democrats gain 13 to improve to 29 Governorships, retaking the majority of Governorships.