Welcome to election coverage of the Western Australian State election, provided by yours truly at KortJackson.org!
So, what is Kort Jackson's prediction?
Below
you will find my prediction, using the chart from the Mackerras
pendulum. A seat that is colored in the following colors indicates the
seat is predicted by KJ to change hands.
| Color Wheel Legend of Parties gaining seats: | ||||
| ALP Gain | LIB Gain | NAT Gain | GRN Gain | IND/OTH Gain |
| Government Seats Prediction: Government Returned ALP gains total of 10 seats |
Official Opposition Seats Prediction: Opposition Defeated Liberals lose 8 seats, Nationals 2 seats. |
|||
| Seat Name | Percentage Held | Seat Name | Percentage Held | |
| Joondalup | 0.03% | Hillarys | 0.4% | |
| Kingsley | 1.2% | Dawesville | 0.8% | |
| Murray-Wellington | 1.7% | Darling Range (b) | 3.5% | |
| Jandakot | 1.8% | Riverton | 4.2% | |
| Pilbara | 2.2% | Scarborough | 5.7% | |
| Kalamunda | 2.3% | Kalgoorlie | 6.2% | |
| Bicton | 3.6% | South Perth | 7.2% | |
| Mount Lawley | 4.0% | Bateman | 7.8% | |
| Burns Beach | 5.4% | Nedlands | 8.0% | |
| Albany | 5.9% | Carine | 10.2% | |
| Southern River | 7.9% | Churchlands | 11.7% | |
| Balcatta | 8.0% | Cottesloe | 14.1% | |
| Wanneroo | 8.6% | Vasse | 14.6% | |
| Forrestfield | 9.4% | CROSSBENCH (Nationals, 6) (c) | ||
| Landsdale (a) | 9.6% | Geraldton (d) | 1.3% (LIB vs. ALP) | |
| Bunbury | 10.5% | North West Central | 10.1% (NAT vs. ALP) | |
| Belmont | 11.4% | Warren-Blackwood | 12.8% (NAT vs. ALP) | |
| Swan Hills | 12.1% | Moore | 19.5% (NAT vs. LIB) | |
| Morley | 12.3% | Central Wheatbelt | 22.2% (NAT vs. ALP) | |
| Perth | 12.6% | Roe | 25.9% (NAT vs. LIB) | |
| Midland | 12.8% | |||
| Kimberley | 13.1% | |||
| Cockburn | 14.3% | |||
| Collie Preston | 14.7% | |||
| Thornlie | 15.8% | |||
| Baldivis | 16.6% | |||
| Victoria Park | 16.8% | |||
| Cannington | 17.6% | |||
| Willagee | 17.7% | |||
| Maylands | 17.9% | |||
| Mandurah | 18.0% | |||
| West Swan | 18.4% | |||
| Butler | 20.5% | |||
| Kwinana | 20.7% | |||
| Bassendean | 21.6% | |||
| Fremantle | 23.0% | |||
| Mirrabooka | 23.3% | |||
| Rockingham | 23.5% | |||
| Warnbro | 23.7% | |||
| Armadale | 25.2% | |||
| Summary of Prediction | ||||
| WA Labor | Liberal | WA Nationals | Greens | Independents/Other |
| 50 (+10) | 5 (-8) | 4 (-2) | 0 (n/c) | 0 (n/c) |
| Synopsis: While several polls show Labor ahead of the Liberals and Nationals by as much as 68-32, I believe the final number will be a bit less than that. This means that the Liberals and Nationals will still hold on to some seats, but will be reduced to single digits each, and it's possible a upside down situation occurs in which the Nationals may form opposition. The incredibly narrow margin of Zak Kirkup's seat in Dawesville likely makes him a goner. However, such a swing isn't quite unanimous: I believe South Perth will resist the wave and maintain its status as a true blue-ribbon Liberal seat. In any case, I see McGowan and Labor surpassing the 50 seat mark, far going beyond the 41-seat high water mark set just 4 years ago. Coupled with gains in the Legislative Council (not predicted in full here) between Labor and the Greens, and Labor should have a easier time in passing legislation through. | ||||
Picture of Parliament House, Perth is by nachoman-au and is licensed under a CC BY-SA 3.0 license.