ALBERTA 2019 :: KortJackson.org

Welcome to coverage of the 30th Legislative Assembly of Alberta election, provided by yours truly at KortJackson.org!

How did we get to here? (A timeline)
In 2015, Premier Jim Prentice opted for an early election to attempt to win a new mandate for the then-dominant Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta (the PC's), who had held power for almost forty-four years, at that point the longest uninterrupted run of power by one provincial party in any province. Peter Lougheed and the PC's won that first election in 1971, turfing out the Social Credit party of Alberta, who had held power since 1935. The PC's stormed to power, the Social Credit Party slowly faded after several elections to nothingness, and the New Democratic Party, led by Grant Notley, gained a single seat in the Legislative Assembly.

For almost eighty years, Alberta was a province that elected centre-right to right-wing governments, often being the "laboratory" of conservative-leaning policies and buoyed by the oil and gas revenue that often saw the province reach considerable levels of prosperity. Originally a bit of a perjorative insult, "Canada's Texas" has pretty much been an apt descriptor of the province.

However, when Jim Prentice called an election in 2015, he badly misjudged the electorate. The economy slowed considerably and Alberta's oil and gas industry did help to blunt part of the blow, but wasn't sufficient to halt the slowing. Jim Prentice's attitude towards Rachel Notley (yes, the daughter of the same Grant Notley mentioned above) was also a turn-off to voters, and by this point, Albertans had enough. The PC's, which enjoyed no fewer than 49 seats after Lougheed's breakthrough win in 1971 and dropped no lower than 51 after that in 1993 was decimated six times over going from 70 seats to just 10 (and really, only 9 after Jim Prentice chose not to accept election to his seat). The other conservative party, the Wildrose lead by Brian Jean, rose to 21 seats and retained status as the official opposition. But it was Rachel Notley, who led the NDP to it's first majority government in Alberta (and the first center-left to left wing government since before the 1935 election), with 54 seats.

Four years later, the divided conservative parties (PC's and Wildrose) chose to reunite, this time as the United Conservative Party (UCP), and Jason Kenney won the leadership election. The result was the UCP taking a definitive lead in the polls it has not surrendered once since then. The NDP has had a rough go in politics, with Notley having to balance promoting the NDP's agenda while also realizing she is leading arguably the most conservative province in Canada. When Premier Notley deciding to finally call the election, the UCP's solid lead has shrunk somewhat and the NDP have at least climbed back into contention, but if things hold, Alberta will change its government for just the fifth time and the UCP will form the sixth government in Alberta.

Why such confidence in this prediction? In essence, Alberta can be divided into three parts: The ridings in the city of Edmonton, the ridings in the city of Calgary and then the rest of the Province. The NDP look to be improving to the part of narrowly holding most of Edmonton and a few seats in Calgary, but the UCP is in position to take the vast majority of seats in Calgary and virtually everything outside the cities, ensuring a UCP majority government. The only question is: Just how big is the majority going to be?

So, how does elections and government work in Canada? (and specifically Alberta)

Elections in Canada are done by first past the post voting. In essence, whomever gets the most votes in a riding (constituency), that person is deemed elected. The federal House of Commons (the Canadian Senate is appointed) and each of the provincial and territory legislatures follow the First Past the Post system. In addition, with the exception of Northwest Territories and Nunavut (non-partisan consensus governments), each province (plus Canada's House of Commons and the territory of Yukon) each have parties that nominate candidates to contest the ridings. Whichever party gains a numerical majority of seats (Alberta has 87 ridings, so 44 is the magic number) is considered to have obtained majority government, and the leader of that party tends to become the premier (unless it's the House of Commons, in which they become the Prime Minister). If a party gains the most seats of all the parties but lacks a numerical majority, they may form a minority government. In a minority government, a party may either govern alone and seek support on legislation on a bill-by-bill basis or attempt to form a coalition to reach a majority of seats. In general, a government must do two main things to retain control of government:

1. The government of the day must demonstrate confidence of the chamber. This is initially established through a Speech from the Throne in which the monarch (Elizabeth II) or the vice regal representative (usually either the Governor-General at the federal level or the Lieutenant Governor of the respective province/territory) reads the official statement of the government on what they intend to achieve for the term. Once established, confidence is maintained by succeeding in passing motions of confidence and defeating motions of no confidence. If the Speech from the Throne is voted upon in the negative, OR a motion of no confidence is passed, OR a motion of confidence fails, the government has lost the confidence of the chamber.
2. The government of the day must demonstrate they can secure supply. Supply in the Westminster Parliamentary system is the budget. The government of the day must demonstrate they can pass a budget. If the budget fails to pass, it is akin to a loss of confidence of the chamber.

Majority governments (and minority governments via coalitions, if they hold together) are generally able to pass both of these tests regularly.True minority governments, on the other hand, do not tend to last particularly long. All it takes for a minority government to topple is for the numerically superior opposition and third parties to combine together to pass a motion of no confidence (or deny supply). In these cases, an early election is called, though sometimes the numerically superior opposition may cobble together a majority of votes on their own and form government instead (see British Columbia after the 2017 provincial election). In provincial, territorial or federal parliaments that have a fixed term law on the books, the latter option is often preferred if available to avoid early elections, and a early election is only called if no other path to an alternative government exists.




The 30th Legislative Assembly of Alberta election was held on April 16, 2019. Use the links above to navigate this minisite. Click the logo in the upper-left to go back to the main homepage of KortJackson.org. Welcome to coverage of the 30th Legislative Assembly of Alberta election, provided by yours truly at KortJackson.org! How did we get to here? (A timeline) In 2015, Premier Jim Prentice opted for an early election to attempt to win a new mandate for the then-dominant Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta (the PC's), who had held power for almost forty-four years, at that point the longest uninterrupted run of power by one provincial party in any province. Peter Lougheed and the PC's won that first election in 1971, turfing out the Social Credit party of Alberta, who had held power since 1935. The PC's stormed to power, the Social Credit Party slowly faded after several elections to nothingness, and the New Democratic Party, led by Grant Notley, gained a single seat in the Legislative Assembly. For almost eighty years, Alberta was a province that elected centre-right to right-wing governments, often being the "laboratory" of conservative-leaning policies and buoyed by the oil and gas revenue that often saw the province reach considerable levels of prosperity. Originally a bit of a perjorative insult, "Canada's Texas" has pretty much been an apt descriptor of the province. However, when Jim Prentice called an election in 2015, he badly misjudged the electorate. The economy slowed considerably and Alberta's oil and gas industry did help to blunt part of the blow, but wasn't sufficient to halt the slowing. Jim Prentice's attitude towards Rachel Notley (yes, the daughter of the same Grant Notley mentioned above) was also a turn-off to voters, and by this point, Albertans had enough. The PC's, which enjoyed no fewer than 49 seats after Lougheed's breakthrough win in 1971 and dropped no lower than 51 after that in 1993 was decimated six times over going from 70 seats to just 10 (and really, only 9 after Jim Prentice chose not to accept election to his seat). The other conservative party, the Wildrose lead by Brian Jean, rose to 21 seats and retained status as the official opposition. But it was Rachel Notley, who led the NDP to it's first majority government in Alberta (and the first center-left to left wing government since before the 1935 election), with 54 seats. Four years later, the divided conservative parties (PC's and Wildrose) chose to reunite, this time as the United Conservative Party (UCP), and Jason Kenney won the leadership election. The result was the UCP taking a definitive lead in the polls it has not surrendered once since then. The NDP has had a rough go in politics, with Notley having to balance promoting the NDP's agenda while also realizing she is leading arguably the most conservative province in Canada. When Premier Notley deciding to finally call the election, the UCP's solid lead has shrunk somewhat and the NDP have at least climbed back into contention, but if things hold, Alberta will change its government for just the fifth time and the UCP will form the sixth government in Alberta. Why such confidence in this prediction? In essence, Alberta can be divided into three parts: The ridings in the city of Edmonton, the ridings in the city of Calgary and then the rest of the Province. The NDP look to be improving to the part of narrowly holding most of Edmonton and a few seats in Calgary, but the UCP is in position to take the vast majority of seats in Calgary and virtually everything outside the cities, ensuring a UCP majority government. The only question is: Just how big is the majority going to be? So, how does elections and government work in Canada? (and specifically Alberta) Elections in Canada are done by first past the post voting. In essence, whomever gets the most votes in a riding (constituency), that person is deemed elected. The federal House of Commons (the Canadian Senate is appointed) and each of the provincial and territory legislatures follow the First Past the Post system. In addition, with the exception of Northwest Territories and Nunavut (non-partisan consensus governments), each province (plus Canada's House of Commons and the territory of Yukon) each have parties that nominate candidates to contest the ridings. Whichever party gains a numerical majority of seats (Alberta has 87 ridings, so 44 is the magic number) is considered to have obtained majority government, and the leader of that party tends to become the premier (unless it's the House of Commons, in which they become the Prime Minister). If a party gains the most seats of all the parties but lacks a numerical majority, they may form a minority government. In a minority government, a party may either govern alone and seek support on legislation on a bill-by-bill basis or attempt to form a coalition to reach a majority of seats. In general, a government must do two main things to retain control of government: 1. The government of the day must demonstrate confidence of the chamber. This is initially established through a Speech from the Throne in which the monarch (Elizabeth II) or the vice regal representative (usually either the Governor-General at the federal level or the Lieutenant Governor of the respective province/territory) reads the official statement of the government on what they intend to achieve for the term. Once established, confidence is maintained by succeeding in passing motions of confidence and defeating motions of no confidence. If the Speech from the Throne is voted upon in the negative, OR a motion of no confidence is passed, OR a motion of confidence fails, the government has lost the confidence of the chamber. 2. The government of the day must demonstrate they can secure supply. Supply in the Westminster Parliamentary system is the budget. The government of the day must demonstrate they can pass a budget. If the budget fails to pass, it is akin to a loss of confidence of the chamber. Majority governments (and minority governments via coalitions, if they hold together) are generally able to pass both of these tests regularly.True minority governments, on the other hand, do not tend to last particularly long. All it takes for a minority government to topple is for the numerically superior opposition and third parties to combine together to pass a motion of no confidence (or deny supply). In these cases, an early election is called, though sometimes the numerically superior opposition may cobble together a majority of votes on their own and form government instead (see British Columbia after the 2017 provincial election). In provincial, territorial or federal parliaments that have a fixed term law on the books, the latter option is often preferred if available to avoid early elections, and a early election is only called if no other path to an alternative government exists.
Copyright 2019 by Kort Jackson for kortjackson.org. All rights to original content reserved. Image of Calgary Skyline is by Pro2 (from English Wikipedia) and is under a CC 1.0 Public Domain license. Image of Shield of the Arms of Alberta is a "public domain creation", details here.