Welcome to "THE VERDICT: Northern Territory 2016" homepage, hosted here at kortjackson.org! Here you will find information regarding the election that has been proscribed by Territory Law to take place on August 24, 2016 to reconstitute the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly. The Legislative Assembly is comprised of twenty-five (25) members, each elected from an electorate representing a geographic electoral division of the Northern Territory. The Northern Territory gained self-governance in 1978, (and had limited powers from 1974-78) but rule by the Legislative Assembly is not absolute: The Parliament of Australia may at any time cancel a law passed by the Legislative Assembly. Also, unlike states, the role of the leading executive is the Chief Minister, rather than a Premier.
So, how did we get to this election?
In 1974, the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly was established as a nineteen (19) member institution with limited powers. The Coalition party of the Territory known as the Country Liberal Party (CLP for short) gained power in the first election. In 1978, self-governance was granted to the Territory, and in 1983, the Assembly grew in size to 25. Despite numerous changes of governments in other states (and the Australian Capital Territory), the Northern Territory continued to be in CLP control until 2001, when Clare Martin led a surprisingly strong campaign to lead the Australian Labor Party (ALP) to its first win, with a one seat majority. Clare Martin took the ALP to an election in 2005, and although polls predicted the ALP might gain a couple of seats at most, the ALP won a smashing suprise win that year, increasing their seat total by six seats to nineteen seats, and cutting the CLP to just four. The election was so stunning to the CLP, the incumbent opposition leader lost his seat. Clare Martin opted to retire two years later, and her successor Paul Henderson (affectionately known, for better or for worse, in the Territory as "Hendo") called a surprise early election in 2008, hoping to maintain the large majority he inherited. On election night, he managed to win government for a third term for the ALP, but was reduced to a one-seat majority. The Territory then passed fixed term legislation to set elections for every four years, preventing future early election calls save for the loss of confidence in a government. However, during Hendo's only full term as Chief Minister, his ALP government was reduced to minority status, relying on the lone independent vote in the Legislative Assembly to remain in power. As the 2012 election approached, no one was certain who would win. Some predicted a CLP victory, others predicted Hendo and the ALP would regain majority government, but only just. In the end, the Territory electorate loves to surprise, and did so by handing Terry Mills and the CLP a solid 16-8 majority, with the lone independent winning re-election to round out the 25 seat chamber.
The election of Terry Mills as Chief Minister in 2012 was arguably the high point of the CLP during this term of government. Internecine battles within the Country Liberals led to his ouster in just seven months, as the CLP made history in electing the first ever Indigenous leader of a state or territory in Australia in Adam Giles. Despite the change in leadership, the battles continued, the scandals continued to unfold, members of the CLP left the party and returned and left again (or just plain left the CLP, period), reducing the CLP to minority government. To add insult and more injury to injury, Adam Giles was briefly turfed out of his job as Chief Minister in a party vote before making a defiant stand to keep his job, which proved successful. Even the ALP had some controversy which ended up with a change in opposition leader from Delia Lawrie to Michael Gunner. However, the ALP side of the ledger of controversy has remained fairly minor. The CLP on the other hand, seemingly reaches a new nadir every passing week. The 2016 federal election saw the party thrashed in the Australian House of Representatives: after coming within a couple of whiskers in 2013 of taking long-tenured ALP MP Warren Snowdon down in Lingiari (which comprises of all of the NT except for Darwin and Palmerston), the incumbent improved his margin from 0.9 percent to 8.4 percent; and the CLP incumbent Natasha Griggs in Solomon (representing Darwin and Palmerston) lost her seat in a 7.4 percent swing (and could only afford a 1.4 percent swing to keep her seat). The defeat of Griggs was even more profound, as many did not necessarily hold her directly responsible for her performance as an MP at the federal level, but rather voted against her because of the CLP's dumpster-fire politics at the territorial level.
As the election approaches on August 24, 2016, the verdict is probably about as clear as the Territory can get: The CLP has ran out of time to fix their mess. The only question is how massive the defeat will be. Presuming the swing stays at the level of the 2016 federal election, the CLP will likely lose seven seats, enough to propel the ALP to fourteen seats and majority government. But if the scarce polling is to be believed as accurate, the CLP will likely be blasted to bits, with Adam Giles potentially at risk in his seat of Braitling.
Picture of Parliament House, Darwin is from Bidgee and is available under a Creative Commons Share-Alike License.