So, what is the Mackerras Pendulum and what does it do?
The Mackerras pendulum is named for renowned Australian political scientist Dr. Malcolm Mackerras, and it essentially demonstrates the strength of a elected member's hold on a particular seat in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly. The pendulum is arranged usually in two columns (in the case of the Northern Territory, the two major parties being the Country Liberals and Labor), with the seats with the closest results listed at the top of each column, and the seats with the largest margins of victory listed at the bottom of each column. However, thanks to several defections from the major parties, the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly has a considerably sized crossbench. They are thus listed after the Labor Party (along with their original party designation).
In order to show how the Pendulum works, let's say that six seats on the Government side were won with less than 56% of the vote, or with a 1.0% margin or less. If Labor was to achieve a uniform swing of 6.0% in all seats, then it is expected that those six seats are to switch hands. If to achieve a swing of 1.0%, then the margins in these seats would increase by 1%, and would decrease the Labor margin in its seats by 1.0%. However, swings are never uniform, and while a national swing might be sufficient to win government, the extra support might be going to either increase the margins in safe seats already held by the opposition or to decrease margins in safe seats held by the Government in which the opposition had no shot to win anyway.
The pendulum also has a few quirks as well. Not all swings are ALP vs. CLP. In cases in which the margin is versus another party or independent, that entity will be listed as 1.0 vs IND or 1.0 vs GRN.
The Pendulum is as follows:
| COUNTRY
LIBERALS -
GOVERNMENT 11 seats |
LABOR
-
OPPOSITION 7 seats |
||||
| Seat Name | 2012 election | Swing | Seat Name | 2012 election | Swing |
| Fong Lim Arafura Sanderson Daly Stuart Port Darwin Drysdale |
CLP CLP CLP CLP CLP CLP CLP |
0.2 2.4 3.1 5.2 5.5 9.7 11.5 |
Fannie Bay Johnston Wanguri Barkly Casuarina Nightcliff Nhulunbuy |
ALP ALP ALP ALP ALP ALP ALP |
0.2 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.6 |
| Brennan Spillett Braitling Katherine |
CLP CLP (new seat) CLP CLP |
14.0 17.9 19.6 22.3 |
CROSSBENCH
(all IND) Arnhem Karama Nelson Blain Goyder Araluen Natmatjira |
2012 election CLP ALP IND CLP CLP CLP CLP |
PENDULUM 4.3 v. ALP 6.4 v. CLP 9.2 v. CLP 13.2 v. ALP 16.0 v. ALP 20.0 v. ALP 20.8 v. ALP |
Picture of Parliament House, Darwin is from Bidgee and is available under a Creative Commons Share-Alike License.