PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND 2019 :: KortJackson.org

The following parties are contesting the Prince Edward Island Legislative Assembly election in 2019:

Party Name	Leader	Leader's Riding	Seats at Dissolution
Prince Edward Island Liberal Association	Wade MacLauchlan	York-Oyster Bed (contesting Stanhope-Marshfield)	16
Progressive Conservative Party of Prince Edward Island	Dennis King	Not in Parliament (contesting Brackley-Hunter River)	8
Green Party of Prince Edward Island	Peter Bevan-Baker	New Haven-Rocky Point	2
New Democratic Party of Prince Edward Island	Joe Byrne	Not in Parliament (contesting Charlottetown-Victoria Park)	n/a
Independents	Bush Dumville	West-Royalty Springvale (contesting Charlottetown-West Royalty)	1

The following ridings are divided into four regions (corresponding to the federal ridings allocated to PEI), then by numerical order as established by Elections PEI. A riding in italics indicates the incumbent did not stand for renomination and is retiring OR the seat was vacant at the time of the dropping of the writs (election call).

Seat Name	Region	Current Party	KJ's Prediction
1. Souris-Elmira	Cardigan	PC	PC
2. Georgetown-Pownal	Cardigan	PC	PC
3. Montague-Kilmuir	Cardigan	Liberal	Green (Gain)
4. Belfast-Murray River	Cardigan	PC	PC
5. Mermaid-Stratford	Cardigan	Liberal	PC (Gain)
6. Stratford-Keppoch	Cardigan	PC	PC
7. Morell-Donagh	Cardigan	PC	PC
8. Stanhope-Marshfield	Charlottetown	Liberal	Liberal
9. Charlottetown-Hillsborough Park	Charlottetown	Liberal	Postponed
10. Charlottetown-Winsloe	Charlottetown	Liberal	Liberal
11. Charlottetown-Belvedere	Charlottetown	Green	Green
12. Charlottetown-Victoria Park	Charlottetown	Liberal	Green (Gain)
13. Charlottetown-Brighton	Charlottetown	Liberal	Green (Gain)
14. Charlottetown-West Royalty	Charlottetown	Liberal	Green (Gain)
15. Brackley-Hunter River	Charlottetown	Independent	PC (Gain)
16. Cornwall-Meadowbank	Malpeque	Liberal	Green (Gain)
17. New Haven-Rocky Point	Malpeque	Green	Green
18. Rustico-Emerald	Malpeque	PC	Green (Gain)
19. Borden-Kinkora	Malpeque	PC	PC
20. Kensington-Malpeque	Malpeque	PC	PC
21. Summerside-Wilmot	Egmont	Liberal	Green (Gain)
22. Summerside-South Drive	Egmont	Liberal	Green (Gain)
23. Tyne Valley-Sherbrooke	Egmont	Liberal	Liberal
24. Evangeline-Miscouche	Egmont	Liberal	Liberal
25. O'Leary-Inverness	Egmont	Liberal	Liberal
26. Alberton-Bloomfield	Egmont	Liberal	Liberal
27. Tignish-Palmer Road	Egmont	Liberal	Green (Gain)

Overall Prediction: Greens Largest Party, Minority Gov't TBD
Liberal	PC	Green	NDP	Independent
6	9	11	0	0
10	1	9	n/c	1
Assessment: In PEI, governments usually get three terms and then they're done. The 2019 election will prove this point to likely be true, as the three term Liberal government falls well short of the seats needed for a fourth term. The Liberals will likely hold the majority of seats in Egmont and a few in Charlottetown but get swept out in Malpeque and Cardigan. The PC's will largely hold serve, even gaining a seat. But the Greens are due for a splash, and will gain some seats in all four regions, enough to give them the most seats and the best chance to form their first ever government in Canada.

Note: The Green candidate for Riding 9 (Charlottetown-Hillsborough Park) unexpectedly passed away on April 19, 2019. As such, that riding's election is postponed until a later date, not to exceed three months past the date of the death of candidate. The prediction table above has also been adjusted. My thoughts and prayers are with the Underhay family. - KEJ