KJ's Prediction for the United States Senate (2019-2021) |
Democratic Retain
+ 23 seats not up |
Democratic Gain |
Republican Gain |
Republican Retain
+ 42 seats not up |
California (Feinstein)
Connecticut (Murphy)
Delaware (Carper)
Florida (Nelson)
Hawaii (Hirono)
Indiana (Donnelly)
Maine (King-Ind.)
Maryland (Cardin)
Massachusetts (Warren)
Michigan (Stabenow)
Minnesota (Klobuchar)
MN-Special (Smith)
Missouri (McCaskill)
Montana (Tester)
New Jersey (Menendez)
New Mexico (Heinrich)
New York (Gillibrand)
Ohio (Brown)
Pennsylvania (Casey Jr.)
Rhode Island (Whitehouse)
Vermont (Sanders-Ind.)
Virginia (Kaine)
Washington (Cantwell)
West Virginia (Manchin)
Wisconsin (Baldwin) |
Arizona (Open)
Nevada (Heller-R) |
North Dakota (Heitkamp-D) |
Mississippi (Wicker)
MS-Special (Hyde-Smith)
Nebraska (Fischer)
Tennessee (Open)
Texas (Cruz)
Utah (Open)
Wyoming (Barrasso) |
Prediction: Republicans retain control with 50 seats by virtue of VP Mike Pence's tiebreaking vote. |
Result: 53-47 to GOP (32 correct predictions/35 total races called, 1 pending or 91.43%)
Synopsis: Although not as successful as my House
prediction, this was still a solid prediction. I was under the
(somewhat unfounded) belief that the margin in favor of Dems in the
House elections would reach a level in which the "macro" effects Nate
Silver alluded to in 538 would take over, helping Dems hold more seats.
8% is a pretty solid lead for D's over R's, but not sufficent, hence
some misses. Florida again proved a close miss here (same with
Governor's race). |