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The United States of America "Midterm" elections are scheduled for Tuesday, November 6, 2018.

Welcome to the Senate prediction page for the 2018 Midterm Elections.

Here you will find the predictions below in summary (write-ups will take too long here):

Incorrect calls will be in Italics.

KJ's Prediction for the United States Senate (2019-2021)
Democratic Retain
+ 23 seats not up
Democratic Gain Republican Gain Republican Retain
+ 42 seats not up
California (Feinstein)
Connecticut (Murphy)
Delaware (Carper)
Florida (Nelson)
Hawaii (Hirono)
Indiana (Donnelly)
Maine (King-Ind.)
Maryland (Cardin)
Massachusetts (Warren)
Michigan (Stabenow)
Minnesota (Klobuchar)
MN-Special (Smith)
Missouri (McCaskill)
Montana (Tester)
New Jersey (Menendez)
New Mexico (Heinrich)
New York (Gillibrand)
Ohio (Brown)
Pennsylvania (Casey Jr.)
Rhode Island (Whitehouse)
Vermont (Sanders-Ind.)
Virginia (Kaine)
Washington (Cantwell)
West Virginia (Manchin)
Wisconsin (Baldwin)
Arizona (Open)
Nevada (Heller-R)
North Dakota (Heitkamp-D) Mississippi (Wicker)
MS-Special (Hyde-Smith)
Nebraska (Fischer)
Tennessee (Open)
Texas (Cruz)
Utah (Open)
Wyoming (Barrasso)
Prediction: Republicans retain control with 50 seats by virtue of VP Mike Pence's tiebreaking vote.

Result: 53-47 to GOP (32 correct predictions/35 total races called, 1 pending or 91.43%)
Synopsis: Although not as successful as my House prediction, this was still a solid prediction. I was under the (somewhat unfounded) belief that the margin in favor of Dems in the House elections would reach a level in which the "macro" effects Nate Silver alluded to in 538 would take over, helping Dems hold more seats. 8% is a pretty solid lead for D's over R's, but not sufficent, hence some misses. Florida again proved a close miss here (same with Governor's race).

Copyright 2018 by Kort Jackson for kortjackson.org. All rights to original content reserved.
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