VICTORIA 2018 :: KortJackson.org

Here is my prediction of how the Legislative Assembly will look following the 2018 Victorian State election. - KJ

Before we begin, what is the Mackerras Pendulum?
The Mackerras pendulum is named after political analyst and psephologist (someone who studies elections and electoral results) Malcolm Mackerras. The pendulum is a table organizing the seats held by each party from the thinnest of electoral margins at the top to the seats with the largest margins of victory held being at the bottom of the list. The pendulum is handy to show that if a uniform swing of a certain % were to happen for one party or the other, that many seats may flip to the other party as a result. If a result is not between Labor vs. Coalition, the party of which the second place finisher belongs to is indicated in the pendulum. However: swings in Australian politics are hardly uniform, therefore there may be "safer seats" that somehow flip from one party to another and "marginal seats" that are expected to flip but hold for the incumbent party holding the seat. "Crossbench" seats (seats not held by either the Government nor the Opposition) are listed after the parties and seperately ranked from most marginal to most safe.

So, what is the current Mackerras pendulum and what is your prediction?

Color/Abbrevation Codes for Predictions/Results:

Hold Codes	Gain Codes	Explanation
ALP-Hold	ALP GAIN	The Labor Party has held/gained this seat.
COA-Hold	COA GAIN	The Coalition has held/gained this seat
GRN-Hold	GRN GAIN	The Greens has held/gained this seat
IND-Hold	IND GAIN	An Independent has held/gained the seat
3P-Hold	3P GAIN	A 3P has Gained the seat (colors will vary)

Incumbent Government VICTORIAN LABOR (+7 to 53 seats) PREDICTION: Government Returned			Opposition/Crossbench THE COALITION (-7 to 31 seats) PREDICTION: Opposition Defeated
Division Name	% to flip	Predict	Predict	% to Flip	Division Name
Frankston	0.50%	HOLD	GAIN	0.8%	Ripon
Carrum	0.70%	HOLD	GAIN	1.8%	Morwell*
Bentleigh	0.80%	HOLD	GAIN	2.9%	South Barwon
Richmond	1.9% (vs. GRN)	HOLD	GAIN	3.2%	Burwood
Mordialloc	2.1%	HOLD	HOLD	3.8%	Eildon
Brunswick	2.2% (vs. GRN)	HOLD	GAIN	4.6%	Bass
Cranbourne	2.3%	HOLD	HOLD	4.6%	Bayswater
Eltham	2.7%	HOLD	GAIN	4.6%	Mount Waverley
Albert Park	3.0%	HOLD	HOLD	4.8%	Forest Hill
Ivanhoe	3.4%	HOLD	HOLD	4.9%	Caulfield
Yan Yean	3.7%	HOLD	GAIN	5.1%	Ringwood
Macedon	3.8%	HOLD	HOLD	5.7%	Box Hill
Sunbury	4.3%	HOLD	HOLD	7.3%	Sandringham
Mulgrave	4.5%	HOLD	HOLD	7.6%	Hastings
Narre Warren North	4.6%	HOLD	HOLD	7.6%	Nepean
Bellarine	4.8%	HOLD	HOLD	7.8%	Ferntree Gully
Bendigo East	5.0%	HOLD	HOLD	8.0% (vs. IND)	Mildura
Monbulk	5.0%	HOLD	HOLD	8.4%	Rowville
Narre Warren South	5.5%	HOLD	HOLD	8.6%	Hawthorn
Wendouree	5.8%	HOLD	HOLD	9.0%	Gembrook
Geelong	6.0%	HOLD	HOLD	9.3%	Croydon
Buninyong	6.4%	HOLD	HOLD	9.6%	Evelyn
Niddrie	7.7%	HOLD	HOLD	9.7%	Benambra
Oakleigh	8.2%	HOLD	HOLD	9.8%	Brighton
Essendon	8.7%	HOLD	HOLD	10.6%	Bulleen
Melton*	11.2%	'HOLD'	HOLD	10.6%	Kew
Keysbourough	11.9%	HOLD	HOLD	10.6%	Polwarth
Bendigo West	12.2%	HOLD	HOLD	11.0%	South-West Coast
Bundoora	12.2%	HOLD	HOLD	11.3%	Narracan
Altona	12.6%	HOLD	HOLD	11.6%	Warrandyte
Dandenong	12.9%	HOLD	HOLD	12.6%	Mornington
Footscray	14.5%	HOLD	HOLD	14.5%	Euroa
Tarneit	14.6%	HOLD	HOLD	15.7%	Gippsland South
Werribee	15.7%	HOLD	HOLD	16.3%	Malvern
Clarinda	15.8%	HOLD	HOLD	16.6%	Ovens Valley
Sydenham	16.3%	HOLD	HOLD	17.9%	Gippsland East
Williamstown	16.5%	HOLD	HOLD	21.3%	Lowan
Pascoe Vale	16.8%	HOLD	HOLD	22.4%	Murray Plains
Lara	17.1%	HOLD		CROSSBENCH
St. Albans	17.5%	HOLD	HOLD	0.4% (vs. LIB)	Prahran (GRN)
Yuroke	18.5%	HOLD	HOLD	2.4% (vs. ALP)	Melbourne (GRN)
Mill Park	19.9%	HOLD	HOLD	2.6% (vs. NAT)	Shepparton (IND)
Kororoit	20.0%	HOLD	HOLD	5.6% (vs. ALP)	Northcote (GRN)
Preston	24.7%	HOLD
Broadmeadows	27.8%	HOLD
Thomastown	28.4%	HOLD

Notes: An Astrisk indicates a seat was won by that party, but the incumbent MLA opted to resign from their party, and thus are technically independents. However, these seats are counted as part of their parties tallies. In Melton, the incumbent is not running again, thus the seat will likely revert back to the ALP, thus a technical 'hold'. In Morwell, the incumbent independent is running again, and the end effects potentially would swing the seat to the ALP, thus a gain.