|The Victorian State election was held on November 24, 2018.
Here is my prediction of how the Legislative Assembly will look following the 2018 Victorian State election. - KJ
Before we begin, what is the Mackerras Pendulum?
The Mackerras pendulum is named after political analyst and psephologist (someone who studies elections and electoral results) Malcolm Mackerras. The pendulum is a table organizing the seats held by each party from the thinnest of electoral margins at the top to the seats with the largest margins of victory held being at the bottom of the list. The pendulum is handy to show that if a uniform swing of a certain % were to happen for one party or the other, that many seats may flip to the other party as a result. If a result is not between Labor vs. Coalition, the party of which the second place finisher belongs to is indicated in the pendulum. However: swings in Australian politics are hardly uniform, therefore there may be "safer seats" that somehow flip from one party to another and "marginal seats" that are expected to flip but hold for the incumbent party holding the seat. "Crossbench" seats (seats not held by either the Government nor the Opposition) are listed after the parties and seperately ranked from most marginal to most safe.
So, what is the current Mackerras pendulum and what is your prediction?
Color/Abbrevation Codes for Predictions/Results:
Notes: An Astrisk indicates a seat was won by that party, but the incumbent MLA opted to resign from their party, and thus are technically independents. However, these seats are counted as part of their parties tallies. In Melton, the incumbent is not running again, thus the seat will likely revert back to the ALP, thus a technical 'hold'. In Morwell, the incumbent independent is running again, and the end effects potentially would swing the seat to the ALP, thus a gain.
|Copyright 2018 by Kort Jackson for kortjackson.org. All rights to original content reserved.
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