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The Victorian State election was held on November 24, 2018.

Here is my prediction of how the Legislative Assembly will look following the 2018 Victorian State election. - KJ

Before we begin, what is the Mackerras Pendulum?
The Mackerras pendulum is named after political analyst and psephologist (someone who studies elections and electoral results) Malcolm Mackerras. The pendulum is a table organizing the seats held by each party from the thinnest of electoral margins at the top to the seats with the largest margins of victory held being at the bottom of the list. The pendulum is handy to show that if a uniform swing of a certain % were to happen for one party or the other, that many seats may flip to the other party as a result. If a result is not between Labor vs. Coalition, the party of which the second place finisher belongs to is indicated in the pendulum. However: swings in Australian politics are hardly uniform, therefore there may be "safer seats" that somehow flip from one party to another and "marginal seats" that are expected to flip but hold for the incumbent party holding the seat. "Crossbench" seats (seats not held by either the Government nor the Opposition) are listed after the parties and seperately ranked from most marginal to most safe.

So, what is the current Mackerras pendulum and what is your prediction?

Color/Abbrevation Codes for Predictions/Results:
Hold Codes Gain Codes Explanation
ALP-Hold ALP GAIN The Labor Party has held/gained this seat.
COA-Hold COA GAIN The Coalition has held/gained this seat
GRN-Hold GRN GAIN The Greens has held/gained this seat
IND-Hold IND GAIN An Independent has held/gained the seat
3P-Hold 3P GAIN A 3P has Gained the seat (colors will vary)

Incumbent Government
VICTORIAN LABOR (+7 to 53 seats)
PREDICTION: Government Returned
THE COALITION (-7 to 31 seats)
PREDICTION: Opposition Defeated
Division Name % to flip Predict Predict % to Flip Division Name
Frankston 0.50% HOLD GAIN 0.8% Ripon
Carrum 0.70% HOLD GAIN 1.8% Morwell*
Bentleigh 0.80% HOLD GAIN 2.9% South Barwon
Richmond 1.9% (vs. GRN) HOLD GAIN 3.2% Burwood
Mordialloc 2.1% HOLD HOLD 3.8% Eildon
Brunswick 2.2% (vs. GRN) HOLD GAIN 4.6% Bass
Cranbourne 2.3% HOLD HOLD 4.6% Bayswater
Eltham 2.7% HOLD GAIN 4.6% Mount Waverley
Albert Park 3.0% HOLD HOLD 4.8% Forest Hill
Ivanhoe 3.4% HOLD HOLD 4.9% Caulfield
Yan Yean 3.7% HOLD GAIN 5.1% Ringwood
Macedon 3.8% HOLD HOLD 5.7% Box Hill
Sunbury 4.3% HOLD HOLD 7.3% Sandringham
Mulgrave 4.5% HOLD HOLD 7.6% Hastings
Narre Warren North 4.6% HOLD HOLD 7.6% Nepean
Bellarine 4.8% HOLD HOLD 7.8% Ferntree Gully
Bendigo East 5.0% HOLD HOLD 8.0% (vs. IND) Mildura
Monbulk 5.0% HOLD HOLD 8.4% Rowville
Narre Warren South 5.5% HOLD HOLD 8.6% Hawthorn
Wendouree 5.8% HOLD HOLD 9.0% Gembrook
Geelong 6.0% HOLD HOLD 9.3% Croydon
Buninyong 6.4% HOLD HOLD 9.6% Evelyn
Niddrie 7.7% HOLD HOLD 9.7% Benambra
Oakleigh 8.2% HOLD HOLD 9.8% Brighton
Essendon 8.7% HOLD HOLD 10.6% Bulleen
Melton* 11.2% 'HOLD' HOLD 10.6% Kew
Keysbourough 11.9% HOLD HOLD 10.6% Polwarth
Bendigo West 12.2% HOLD HOLD 11.0% South-West Coast
Bundoora 12.2% HOLD HOLD 11.3% Narracan
Altona 12.6% HOLD HOLD 11.6% Warrandyte
Dandenong 12.9% HOLD HOLD 12.6% Mornington
Footscray 14.5% HOLD HOLD 14.5% Euroa
Tarneit 14.6% HOLD HOLD 15.7% Gippsland South
Werribee 15.7% HOLD HOLD 16.3% Malvern
Clarinda 15.8% HOLD HOLD 16.6% Ovens Valley
Sydenham 16.3% HOLD HOLD 17.9% Gippsland East
Williamstown 16.5% HOLD HOLD 21.3% Lowan
Pascoe Vale 16.8% HOLD HOLD 22.4% Murray Plains
St. Albans 17.5% HOLD HOLD 0.4% (vs. LIB) Prahran (GRN)
Yuroke 18.5% HOLD HOLD 2.4% (vs. ALP) Melbourne (GRN)
Mill Park 19.9% HOLD HOLD 2.6% (vs. NAT) Shepparton (IND)
Kororoit 20.0% HOLD HOLD 5.6% (vs. ALP) Northcote (GRN)
Preston 24.7% HOLD
Broadmeadows 27.8% HOLD
Thomastown 28.4% HOLD

Notes: An Astrisk indicates a seat was won by that party, but the incumbent MLA opted to resign from their party, and thus are technically independents. However, these seats are counted as part of their parties tallies. In Melton, the incumbent is not running again, thus the seat will likely revert back to the ALP, thus a technical 'hold'. In Morwell, the incumbent independent is running again, and the end effects potentially would swing the seat to the ALP, thus a gain.
Copyright 2018 by Kort Jackson for kortjackson.org. All rights to original content reserved.
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