The Victorian State election was held on November 24, 2018.
Here is the results page based on my predictions.
Seats changing hands will have the division name shaded with the winning party.
A division name in italics indicates a INCORRECT Prediction.
A division name in Bold indicates a correct Prediction.
Color/Abbrevation Codes for Predictions/Results:
Hold Codes |
Gain Codes |
Explanation |
ALP Hold |
ALP GAIN |
The Labor Party has held/gained this seat. |
COA Hold |
COA GAIN |
The Coalition has held/gained this seat |
GRN Hold |
GRN GAIN |
The Greens has held/gained this seat |
IND Hold |
IND GAIN |
An Independent has held/gained the seat |
3P Hold |
3P GAIN |
A 3P has Gained the seat (colors will vary) |
Incumbent Government
VICTORIAN LABOR
PREDICTION: Government Returned
RESULT: GOVERNMENT RETURNED |
|
Opposition
THE COALITION
PREDICTION: Opposition Defeated
RESULT: OPPOSITION DEFEATED |
Division Name |
% to flip |
Predict |
|
Predict |
% to Flip |
Division Name |
Frankston |
0.50% |
HOLD |
|
GAIN |
0.8% |
Ripon |
Carrum |
0.70% |
HOLD |
|
GAIN |
1.8% |
Morwell* |
Bentleigh |
0.80% |
HOLD |
|
GAIN |
2.9% |
South Barwon |
Richmond |
1.9% (vs. GRN) |
HOLD |
|
GAIN |
3.2% |
Burwood |
Mordialloc |
2.1% |
HOLD |
|
HOLD |
3.8% |
Eildon |
Brunswick |
2.2% (vs. GRN) |
HOLD |
|
GAIN |
4.6% |
Bass |
Cranbourne |
2.3% |
HOLD |
|
HOLD |
4.6% |
Bayswater |
Eltham |
2.7% |
HOLD |
|
GAIN |
4.6% |
Mount Waverley |
Albert Park |
3.0% |
HOLD |
|
HOLD |
4.8% |
Forest Hill |
Ivanhoe |
3.4% |
HOLD |
|
HOLD |
4.9% |
Caulfield |
Yan Yean |
3.7% |
HOLD |
|
GAIN |
5.1% |
Ringwood |
Macedon |
3.8% |
HOLD |
|
HOLD |
5.7% |
Box Hill |
Sunbury |
4.3% |
HOLD |
|
HOLD |
7.3% |
Sandringham |
Mulgrave |
4.5% |
HOLD |
|
HOLD |
7.6% |
Hastings |
Narre Warren North |
4.6% |
HOLD |
|
HOLD |
7.6% |
Nepean |
Bellarine |
4.8% |
HOLD |
|
HOLD |
7.8% |
Ferntree Gully |
Bendigo East |
5.0% |
HOLD |
|
HOLD |
8.0% (vs. IND) |
Mildura |
Monbulk |
5.0% |
HOLD |
|
HOLD |
8.4% |
Rowville |
Narre Warren South |
5.5% |
HOLD |
|
HOLD |
8.6% |
Hawthorn |
Wendouree |
5.8% |
HOLD |
|
HOLD |
9.0% |
Gembrook |
Geelong |
6.0% |
HOLD |
|
HOLD |
9.3% |
Croydon |
Buninyong |
6.4% |
HOLD |
|
HOLD |
9.6% |
Evelyn |
Niddrie |
7.7% |
HOLD |
|
HOLD |
9.7% |
Benambra |
Oakleigh |
8.2% |
HOLD |
|
HOLD |
9.8% |
Brighton |
Essendon |
8.7% |
HOLD |
|
HOLD |
10.6% |
Bulleen |
Melton* |
11.2% |
'HOLD' |
|
HOLD |
10.6% |
Kew |
Keysbourough |
11.9% |
HOLD |
|
HOLD |
10.6% |
Polwarth |
Bendigo West |
12.2% |
HOLD |
|
HOLD |
11.0% |
South-West Coast |
Bundoora |
12.2% |
HOLD |
|
HOLD |
11.3% |
Narracan |
Altona |
12.6% |
HOLD |
|
HOLD |
11.6% |
Warrandyte |
Dandenong |
12.9% |
HOLD |
|
HOLD |
12.6% |
Mornington |
Footscray |
14.5% |
HOLD |
|
HOLD |
14.5% |
Euroa |
Tarneit |
14.6% |
HOLD |
|
HOLD |
15.7% |
Gippsland South |
Werribee |
15.7% |
HOLD |
|
HOLD |
16.3% |
Malvern |
Clarinda |
15.8% |
HOLD |
|
HOLD |
16.6% |
Ovens Valley |
Sydenham |
16.3% |
HOLD |
|
HOLD |
17.9% |
Gippsland East |
Williamstown |
16.5% |
HOLD |
|
HOLD |
21.3% |
Lowan |
Pascoe Vale |
16.8% |
HOLD |
|
HOLD |
22.4% |
Murray Plains |
Lara |
17.1% |
HOLD |
|
|
CROSSBENCH |
St. Albans |
17.5% |
HOLD |
|
HOLD |
0.4% (vs. LIB) |
Prahran (GRN) |
Yuroke |
18.5% |
HOLD |
|
HOLD |
2.4% (vs. ALP) |
Melbourne (GRN) |
Mill Park |
19.9% |
HOLD |
|
HOLD |
2.6% (vs. NAT) |
Shepparton (IND) |
Kororoit |
20.0% |
HOLD |
|
HOLD |
5.6% (vs. ALP) |
Northcote (GRN) |
Preston |
24.7% |
HOLD |
|
|
|
|
Broadmeadows |
27.8% |
HOLD |
|
|
|
|
Thomastown |
28.4% |
HOLD |
|
|
|
|
Notes:
An Asterisk indicates a seat was won by that party, but the incumbent
MLA opted to resign from their party, and thus are technically
independents. However, these seats are counted as part of their parties
tallies. In Melton, the incumbent is not running again, thus the seat
will likely revert back to the ALP, thus a technical 'hold'. In
Morwell, the incumbent independent is running again, and the end
effects potentially would swing the seat to the ALP, thus a gain.
PREDICTION RESULT: (79/88 or 89.77%)
|
Synopsis:
While I predicted the ALP to win and to gain a few seats, not very many
people were predicting a ALP masterclass win. Dan Andrews, once
considered a Premier difficult to get along with, became "Dan the Man",
a state (and federal) party hero. Labor not only picked off a few
marginals, but also made deep inroads into Eastern Melbourne, which was
home to many blue ribbon Coalition seats, and some of those seats did
fall. The Greens lost Northcote (a seat they got in a by-election) but
picked off Brunswick, the only ALP held seat that was lost by Labor,
essentially ending in a wash. As for Matthew Guy and the
Coalition, it was a major body blow, and the somewhat affable and
likeable Guy's political career looks all but finished.
Federally, although the ALP tends to do well in Victoria, this should
be a clarion call to PM Scott Morrison and the federal Coalition to
wake up. A federal election is due soon, and it's looking like Labor
will clean up shop barring a steep (and successful) course correction
(and no, more leadership roils won't be the solution). |
|