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menubar vichome prediction results
The Victorian State election was held on November 24, 2018.

Here is the results page based on my predictions.
Seats changing hands will have the division name shaded with the winning party.
A division name in italics indicates a INCORRECT Prediction.
A division name in Bold indicates a correct Prediction.

Color/Abbrevation Codes for Predictions/Results:
Hold Codes Gain Codes Explanation
ALP Hold ALP GAIN The Labor Party has held/gained this seat.
COA Hold COA GAIN The Coalition has held/gained this seat
GRN Hold GRN GAIN The Greens has held/gained this seat
IND Hold IND GAIN An Independent has held/gained the seat
3P Hold 3P GAIN A 3P has Gained the seat (colors will vary)

Incumbent Government
PREDICTION: Government Returned
PREDICTION: Opposition Defeated
Division Name % to flip Predict Predict % to Flip Division Name
Frankston 0.50% HOLD GAIN 0.8% Ripon
Carrum 0.70% HOLD GAIN 1.8% Morwell*
Bentleigh 0.80% HOLD GAIN 2.9% South Barwon
Richmond 1.9% (vs. GRN) HOLD GAIN 3.2% Burwood
Mordialloc 2.1% HOLD HOLD 3.8% Eildon
Brunswick 2.2% (vs. GRN) HOLD GAIN 4.6% Bass
Cranbourne 2.3% HOLD HOLD 4.6% Bayswater
Eltham 2.7% HOLD GAIN 4.6% Mount Waverley
Albert Park 3.0% HOLD HOLD 4.8% Forest Hill
Ivanhoe 3.4% HOLD HOLD 4.9% Caulfield
Yan Yean 3.7% HOLD GAIN 5.1% Ringwood
Macedon 3.8% HOLD HOLD 5.7% Box Hill
Sunbury 4.3% HOLD HOLD 7.3% Sandringham
Mulgrave 4.5% HOLD HOLD 7.6% Hastings
Narre Warren North 4.6% HOLD HOLD 7.6% Nepean
Bellarine 4.8% HOLD HOLD 7.8% Ferntree Gully
Bendigo East 5.0% HOLD HOLD 8.0% (vs. IND) Mildura
Monbulk 5.0% HOLD HOLD 8.4% Rowville
Narre Warren South 5.5% HOLD HOLD 8.6% Hawthorn
Wendouree 5.8% HOLD HOLD 9.0% Gembrook
Geelong 6.0% HOLD HOLD 9.3% Croydon
Buninyong 6.4% HOLD HOLD 9.6% Evelyn
Niddrie 7.7% HOLD HOLD 9.7% Benambra
Oakleigh 8.2% HOLD HOLD 9.8% Brighton
Essendon 8.7% HOLD HOLD 10.6% Bulleen
Melton* 11.2% 'HOLD' HOLD 10.6% Kew
Keysbourough 11.9% HOLD HOLD 10.6% Polwarth
Bendigo West 12.2% HOLD HOLD 11.0% South-West Coast
Bundoora 12.2% HOLD HOLD 11.3% Narracan
Altona 12.6% HOLD HOLD 11.6% Warrandyte
Dandenong 12.9% HOLD HOLD 12.6% Mornington
Footscray 14.5% HOLD HOLD 14.5% Euroa
Tarneit 14.6% HOLD HOLD 15.7% Gippsland South
Werribee 15.7% HOLD HOLD 16.3% Malvern
Clarinda 15.8% HOLD HOLD 16.6% Ovens Valley
Sydenham 16.3% HOLD HOLD 17.9% Gippsland East
Williamstown 16.5% HOLD HOLD 21.3% Lowan
Pascoe Vale 16.8% HOLD HOLD 22.4% Murray Plains
St. Albans 17.5% HOLD HOLD 0.4% (vs. LIB) Prahran (GRN)
Yuroke 18.5% HOLD HOLD 2.4% (vs. ALP) Melbourne (GRN)
Mill Park 19.9% HOLD HOLD 2.6% (vs. NAT) Shepparton (IND)
Kororoit 20.0% HOLD HOLD 5.6% (vs. ALP) Northcote (GRN)
Preston 24.7% HOLD
Broadmeadows 27.8% HOLD
Thomastown 28.4% HOLD

Notes: An Asterisk indicates a seat was won by that party, but the incumbent MLA opted to resign from their party, and thus are technically independents. However, these seats are counted as part of their parties tallies. In Melton, the incumbent is not running again, thus the seat will likely revert back to the ALP, thus a technical 'hold'. In Morwell, the incumbent independent is running again, and the end effects potentially would swing the seat to the ALP, thus a gain.

PREDICTION RESULT: (79/88 or 89.77%)
Synopsis: While I predicted the ALP to win and to gain a few seats, not very many people were predicting a ALP masterclass win. Dan Andrews, once considered a Premier difficult to get along with, became "Dan the Man", a state (and federal) party hero. Labor not only picked off a few marginals, but also made deep inroads into Eastern Melbourne, which was home to many blue ribbon Coalition seats, and some of those seats did fall. The Greens lost Northcote (a seat they got in a by-election) but picked off Brunswick, the only ALP held seat that was lost by Labor, essentially ending in a wash. As for Matthew Guy and the Coalition, it was a major body blow, and the somewhat affable and likeable Guy's political career looks all but finished.

Federally, although the ALP tends to do well in Victoria, this should be a clarion call to PM Scott Morrison and the federal Coalition to wake up. A federal election is due soon, and it's looking like Labor will clean up shop barring a steep (and successful) course correction (and no, more leadership roils won't be the solution).

Copyright 2018 by Kort Jackson for kortjackson.org. All rights to original content reserved.
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