KJ.org :: AUSTRALIA 2022:: House Predictions

Here, you will find my prediction for the House of Represenatives elections in 2022 for Australia. Before I get into the predictions, here's how I set up the predictions:

First, I break down the analysis state-by-state. Rather than a huge pendulum chart of 151 seats, I break this down into a smaller number of seats per state. Granted, states like New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria are still a little unwieldy, it's easier to follow.

Second, in the past I attempted to predict a swing range and only covered the seats in that range, writing the other seats as automatically safe. For 2019, I changed this approach: I still predict a swing, but I include all seats in the table.

Finally, I break it all down at the end with how many seats each party has.

So let's begin!


State Briefing: As New South Wales contains 47 seats of the 151 seat House of Representatives, NSW plays an important role in determining the government of the day. In fact, oftentimes the party or Coalition that manages to win the most seats in NSW is the party that wins the election, however in 2016 and 2019, Labor managed a slight majority of seats (24/47) without winning government. For Labor to win government, they'll have to hold what they already have in NSW and add a few seats to their tally. State polling shows the ALP a slight favorite in NSW, gaining a few seats along the way. Also, the Coalition is facing a few spirited challengers from the so called "teal independents" and facing a major uphill effort to unseat Zali Steggall from her seat in Warringah (which said efforts was not helped by the Coalition's candidate Katherine Deves commentary regarding transgender athletes). The one bright spot for the Coalition is that they stand likely to regain Hughes from Craig Kelly, who defected from the Coalition to the United Australian Party (no relation to the predecessor party of the Liberal Party of Australia)
ALP Hold	ALP Gain	3P/IND Hold	3P/IND Gain	Coalition Gain	Coalition Hold
Barton Blaxland Chifley Cunningham Dobell Eden-Monaro Fowler Gilmore Grayndler Greenway Hunter Kingsford Smith Macarthur Macquarie McMahon Newcastle Paramatta Paterson Richmond Shortland Sydney Watson Werriwa Whitlam	Reid Robertson	Warringah (IND)	Wentworth (IND)	Hughes	Banks Bennelong Berowra Bradfield Calare Cook Cowper Farrer Hume Lindsay Lyne Mackellar Mitchell New England North Sydney Page Parkes Riverina
Swing: ~5.0 to ALP		ALP: 26 (+2), Independent: 2 (+1), Coalition: 19 (-2)


State Briefing: Victoria is the next largest state in population, and yet again gained another seat to increase it's allotment to 39 seats. Victoria is one of the ALP's strongest states, in which the ALP enjoys a considerable advantage. State polls show a decent swing to the ALP, perhaps finally netting Labor some additional gains. In addition, the seat of Hawke is a new seat clocking in at a notional 10.2% advantage to the ALP, giving them one additional seat. The teal independents are also a factor here in Victoria, with polls tipping Kooyong and perhaps even Goldstein to go to independents. If Labor can hold their current seats in Victoria and make even the modest of gains, the math towards a majority government starts to work. Further, any losses by the Coalition to the "teal independents" is almost certain to frustrate their path towards a majority government.
ALP Hold	ALP Gain	3P/IND Hold	3P/IND Gain	Coalition Gain	Coalition Hold
Ballarat Bendigo Bruce Calwell Cooper Corangamite Corio Dunkley Fraser Gellibrand Gorton Hawke Holt Hotham Issacs Jagajaga Lalor Macnamara Maribyrnong McEwen Scullin Wills	Chisholm Higgins	Indi (IND) Melbourne (GRN)	Goldstein (IND) Kooyong (IND)	None	Aston Casey Deakin Flinders Gippsland La Trobe Mallee Menzies Monash Nicholls Wannon
Swing: ~4.0 to ALP		ALP: 24 (+2), Independents: 3 (+2), Greens: 1 (0), Coalition: 11 (-4) Note: Hawke begins as a new seat notionally Labor, so I have it recorded as a Labor Win/Hold.