Welcome to KortJackson.org's coverage of the Australia 2022 election, with predictions by yours truly. The composition of the 47th Parliament of Australia shall be decided by election on May 21, 2022. So, how did the election go? In short, To be determined. Write-up to follow after election. So, without further ado, here's the predictions and score chart. The "state record" counts the correct/incorrect predictions in alpha order for the state only, the "Australia Record" counts the correct/incorrect predictions all the way to 151. Division Name KJ Prediction Result Correct? State Record Australia Record Banks Coalition Hold Barton ALP Hold Bennelong Coalition Hold Berowra Coalition Hold Blaxland ALP Hold Bradfield Coalition Hold Calare Coalition Hold Chifley ALP Hold Cook Coalition Hold Cowper Coalition Hold Cunningham ALP Hold Dobell ALP Hold Eden-Monaro ALP Hold Farrer Coalition Hold Fowler ALP Hold Gilmore ALP Hold Grayndler ALP Hold Greenway ALP Hold Hughes Coalition GAIN Hume Coalition Hold Hunter ALP Hold Kingsford Smith ALP Hold Lindsay Coalition Hold Lyne Coalition Hold Macarthur ALP Hold Mackellar Coalition Hold Macquarie ALP Hold McMahon ALP Hold Mitchell Coalition Hold New England Coalition Hold Newcastle ALP Hold North Sydney Coalition Hold Page Coalition Hold Parkes Coalition Hold Parramatta ALP Hold Paterson ALP Hold Reid ALP GAIN Richmond ALP Hold Riverina Coalition Hold Robertson ALP GAIN Shortland ALP Hold Sydney ALP Hold Warringah IND Hold Watson ALP Hold Wentworth IND GAIN Werriwa ALP Hold Whitlam ALP Hold Result: TBD/47 (TBD%) Note: The Coalition originally won Hughes in 2019, only to lose the seat by Craig Kelly defecting to the UAP. This is predicted as a Coalition Gain as I expect the Coalition to take the seat back. Division Name KJ Prediction Result Correct? State Record Australia Record Aston Coaltion Hold Ballarat ALP Hold Bendigo ALP Hold Bruce ALP Hold Calwell ALP Hold Casey Coaltion Hold Chisholm ALP GAIN Cooper ALP Hold Corangamite ALP Hold Corio ALP Hold Deakin Coaltion Hold Dunkley ALP Hold Flinders Coalition Hold Fraser ALP Hold Gellibrand ALP Hold Gippsland Coaltion Hold Goldstein IND GAIN Gorton ALP Hold Hawke ALP Hold/WIN Higgins ALP GAIN Holt ALP Hold Hotham ALP Hold Indi IND Hold Issacs ALP Hold Jagajaga ALP Hold Kooyong IND GAIN La Trobe Coalition Hold Lalor ALP Hold Macnamara ALP Hold Mallee Coaltion Hold Maribyrnong ALP Hold McEwen ALP Hold Melbourne Green Hold Menzies Coaltion Hold Monash Coaltion Hold Nicholls Coaltion Hold Scullin ALP Hold Wannon Coaltion Hold Wills ALP Hold Result: TBD/39 (TBD%) Note: Hawke is a new seat that is notionally (10.4%) Labor. It starts as a Labor Win/Hold. Division Name KJ's Prediction Result Correct? State Record Australia Record Blair ALP Hold Bonner Coalition Hold Bowman Coalition Hold Brisbane Coalition Hold Capricornia Coalition Hold Dawson Coalition GAIN Dickson Coalition Hold Fadden Coalition Hold Fairfax Coalition Hold Fisher Coalition Hold Flynn Coalition Hold Forde Coalition Hold Griffith ALP Hold Groom Coalition Hold Herbert Coalition Hold Hinkler Coalition Hold Kennedy Katter's Hold Leichhardt ALP GAIN Lilley ALP Hold Longman ALP GAIN Maranoa Coalition Hold McPherson Coalition Hold Moncrieff Coalition Hold Moreton ALP Hold Oxley ALP Hold Petrie Coalition Hold Rankin ALP Hold Ryan Coalition Hold Wide Bay Coalition Hold Wright Coalition Hold Result: TBD/30 (TBD%) Note: The Coalition originally won Dawson in 2019, only to lose the seat by George Christensen defecting to One Nation (and running for the Senate instead). This is predicted as a Coalition Gain as I expect the Coalition to take the seat back. Division Name KJ's Prediction Result Correct? State Record Australia Record Brand ALP Hold Burt ALP Hold Canning Coalition Hold Cowan ALP Hold Curtin Coalition Hold Durack Coalition Hold Forrest Coalition Hold Fremantle ALP Hold Hasluck ALP GAIN Moore Coalition Hold O'Connor Coalition Hold Pearce ALP GAIN Perth ALP Hold Swan ALP GAIN Tangney Coalition Hold Result: TBD/15 (TBD%) Division Name KJ's Prediction Result Correct? State Record Australia Record Adelaide ALP Hold Barker Coalition Hold Boothby ALP GAIN Grey Coalition Hold Hindmarsh ALP Hold Kingston ALP Hold Makin ALP Hold Mayo CA Hold Spence ALP Hold Sturt Coalition Hold Result: TBD/10 (TBD%) Note: Spence was won by Labor in 2019, however Nick Champion resigned after successfully winning election to state parliament. No by-election was called as the vacancy occurred too close to an election. Given that Spence is on a double digit margin for the ALP, it's still recorded as a ALP Hold prediction as the party never formally "lost" the seat in a election. Division Name KJ's Prediction Result Correct? State Record Australia Record Bass ALP GAIN Braddon ALP GAIN Clark IND Hold Franklin ALP Hold Lyons ALP Hold Result: TBD/5 (TBD%) Division Name KJ's Prediction Result Correct? Territory Record Australia Record Lingiari ALP Hold Solomon ALP Hold Result: TBD/2 (TBD%) Division Name KJ's Prediction Result Correct? Territory Record Australia Record Bean ALP Hold Canberra ALP Hold Fenner ALP Hold Result: TBD/3 (TBD%)
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