Welcome to "THE VERDICT: Australia 2016" page. This webpage contains my projections for the House of Representatives that will form the 45th Parliament of Australia. There are 150 electorates, with each state and territory having the following number of seats:
| New South Wales | 47 seats |
| Victoria | 37 seats |
| Queensland | 30 seats |
| Western Australia | 16 seats |
| South Australia | 11 seats |
| Tasmania | 5 seats |
| Australian Capital Territory | 2 seats |
| Northern Territory | 2 seats |
How do I predict seats?
First, I determine the "scope" of seats in play. To do so, I determine by how much a state/territory may swing one way or another in the polls. Most seats that are not in this percentage are considered "not in play" and are marked safe. However, in some cases (Cowper and New England in NSW; Boothby, Grey and Mayo in SA), there is an Independent or third party bid that puts the seat in play. After determining the scope, I then look at the projected swings for each state and territory (quantiative), as well as reading (extensively!) about various electorates, in an attempt to gain a qualitative view of how the election is going. I finally determine a swing, and make decisions on seats that fall in that swing (or just outside of it).
New South Wales has been the battleground
that (with one exception in the days when Robert Menzies was Prime
Minister) has determined who formed government. Even though NSW has
given up a seat due to population distribution, the 47 seats that NSW
voters select MP's is still the largest from any state. In order for
Labor to have a chance to win government, Labor would need to win the
lion's share of battleground electorates. Fortunately, redisributions
have tilted three seats from the Coalition to Labor, and Labor could
easily win all three. Further frustrating the Coalition is the return
of Rob Oakshott and Tony Windsor, who are contesting Cowper and New
England, respectively. Even Warringah (the seat of former Prime
Minister Tony Abbott) is seeing a spirited challenge from James
Mathison, known as the former host of Australian Idol.
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| 47
seats total, Margin of seats "in play" in NSW: 8% Seats out of Margin "in play": Cowper, New England, Warringah (all Coalition) |
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| ALP (8 seats "safe") | Blaxland, Chifley, Cunningham, Grayndler, Fowler, Hunter, Newcastle, Sydney, Watson | |||
| Coalition (14 seats "safe") | Berowra, Bradfield, Cook, Calare, Farrer, Hughes, Hume, Lyne, Mackellar, Mitchell, North Sydney, Parkes, Riverina, Wentworth | |||
| ALP Hold (9) | ALP Gain (5) | IND / 3P Gain (1) | Coalition Gain | Coalition Hold (10) |
| Greenway Hunter Kingsford Smith Parramatta McMahon Richmond Shortland Werriwa Whitlam |
Banks Barton Dobell Eden-Monaro Paterson |
New England (IND) | Bennelong Cowper Lindsay Gilmore Macarthur Macquarie Page Reid Robertson Warringah |
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| THE VERDICT: | Swing of 2.9% to ALP, ALP +5, IND +1 | |||
| Synopsis: The Coalition is set to take a beating here, but not nearly as bad as it did in 2007 or when Labor was defeated in 2013. The Coalition maintains a slender lead in NSW (24 seats to Labor's 22 and one Tony Windsor). This lead in NSW along with a strong result in QLD might be what saves the day for Malcolm Turnbull. If this is the case, Eden-Monaro is set to lose its bellweather status. | ||||
Despite a horrendous election result in
2013, Victoria remained a strong point with the ALP, as the losses were
limited to just three seats. However, many fairly safe seats for the
ALP were made marginal as a result. Labor must do well here as well as
gain seats back in order to build up momentum to gain the necessary 21
seats to win government. Unlike New South Wales, there are only a few
seats truly in play on either side, considering the Victorian
electorate preferring to lean towards the ALP.
,
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| 37
seats total, Margin of seats "in play": 4% Seats out of margin "in Play": Batman (ALP) |
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| ALP (11 seats "safe") | Ballarat, Calwell, Corio, Gellibrand, Gorton, Holt, Hotham, Lalor, Maribrynong, Scullin, Wills | ||||
| Coalition (13 seats "safe") | Aston, Casey, Dunkley, Flinders, Gippsland, Goldstein, Higgins, Kooyong, Mallee, McMillan, Menzies, Murray, Wannon | ||||
| Greens (No seats "safe") | No seats held by the Greens are outside the margin "in play". | ||||
| ALP Hold (8) | ALP Gain (2) | IND / 3P Hold (2) | IND / 3P Gain | Coalition Gain | Coalition Hold (1) |
| Batman Bendigo Bruce Chisholm Issacs Jagajaga McEwen Melbourne Ports |
Corangamite Deakin |
Indi (IND) Melbourne (GRN) |
La Trobe | ||
| THE VERDICT: | Swing of 3.9% to ALP, ALP +2 | ||||
| Synopsis: Victoria returns to a favorable ALP result from the knife edge of 2013. Many ALP "marginals" now return to form, and the ALP manages at least one, though probably two additional seats as a result. La Trobe looks tantalizingly close for the taking, but the ALP will probably fall short. The Liberals attempt to dislodge Cathy McGowan from her seat in Indi looks to become weaker and less likely by the day, marking a increased potential for a hung parliament. Adam Bandt should be able to retain his seat of Melbourne, and the Greens are likely to harrass Labor in Batman, but the ALP should be able to push the challenge back. | |||||
Queensland
is to the Coalition as Victoria is to Labor. For the Coalition to hold
on to government, they must run up the totals yet again in this
northeastern state, which is four individual identities in one: The
urbanized city of Brisbane, the regional cities of Cairns, Mount Isa
and Townsville, the regional areas just outside suburban Brisbane and
the regional cities (known as the "bush") and the deep rural areas of
the country. Even in 2007, when native son Kevin Rudd propelled Labor
out of an eleven year wilderness and into government, Labor just barely
managed a majority of seats in Queensland, and even then, the vote in
the state ran well behind the trendlines for the nation as a whole. If
Labor is to have a shot at government this time around, Labor needs to
win seats in the Brisbane area, plus win seats like Leichhardt (of
which the majority of Cairns falls in) and Capricornia (a regional
"bush" seat).
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| 30 seats in total, Margin of seats "in play": 8% | |||||
| ALP (no seats "safe") | No seats currently held by the ALP are outside the margin "in play". | ||||
| Coalition (11 seats "safe") | Bowman, Fadden, Fisher, Groom, Hinkler, Maranoa, McPherson, Moncrieff, Ryan, Wide Bay, Wright | ||||
| Third Parties (no seats "safe") | Neither seat held by the KAP or PUP are outside the margin "in play". | ||||
| ALP Hold (6) | ALP Gain (4) | IND / 3P Hold (1) | IND / 3P Gain | Coalition Gain (1) | Coalition Hold (7) |
| Blair Griffith Lilley Moreton Oxley Rankin |
Brisbane Capricornia Longman Petrie |
Kennedy (KAP) | Fairfax (from PUP) | Bonner Dawson Dickson Forde Flynn Herbert Leichhardt |
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| THE VERDICT: | Swing of 4.5% to ALP, ALP +4, Coalition +1 | ||||
| Synopsis: While the ALP will certainly cement their six seats (and add 4), must win seats like Herbert, Leichhardt and Bonner appear out of reach (and the personal vote of Ross Vasta (Coalition) in Bonner is a boon to stave off a substantial swing against him). One bright spot for the ALP is in Longman, in which the ALP might perform better than the swing to win the seat. | |||||
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Western
Australia is the largest state in Australia, but only holds around two
million Australians, with the vast majority of the population in the
West located in Perth and its suburbs. Western Australia is also a
interesting case politically: Once fairly friendly to the ALP, it has
turned into a reliable state for the Coalition to pick up seats,
especially as the 1990's began. By the 2007 election, (even as Kevin
Rudd was en route to a solid win) Labor was reduced to just four seats
(and to just three in 2010 and since).Even at the state level, Labor
has struggled, as Geoff Gallop won two terms in 2001 and 2005 with
narrow majorities, and his successor Alan Carpenter lost the 2008
election after a hung parliment eventually yielded a Liberal government
with WA National Party support (The Liberals and Nationals are not in
Coalition in Western Australia).
Despite all three Labor incumbents choosing to retire at this election, the ALP looks set to hang on to all three seats (located in Perth), and the lagging of the prior Mining boom and voter distaste for the state Liberal goverment has led to a resurgence in the ALP's fortunes in WA. Labor will need these improved fortunes in polling to translate into seats in the House of Representatives if they hope to gain government.
Despite all three Labor incumbents choosing to retire at this election, the ALP looks set to hang on to all three seats (located in Perth), and the lagging of the prior Mining boom and voter distaste for the state Liberal goverment has led to a resurgence in the ALP's fortunes in WA. Labor will need these improved fortunes in polling to translate into seats in the House of Representatives if they hope to gain government.
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| 16
seats in total, Margin of seats "in play": 10% Seats outside the margin "in play": Tangney (Coalition turned IND) |
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| ALP (no seats "safe") | No seats currently held by the ALP are outside the margin "in play". | |||
| Coalition (4 seats "safe") | Canning, Curtin, Forrest, Moore | |||
| ALP Hold (3) | ALP Gain (4) | IND / 3P Gain | Coalition Gain | Coalition Hold (5) |
| Brand Fremantle Perth |
Burt Cowan Hasluck Swan |
Durack Pearce O'Connor Stirling Tangney* |
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| THE VERDICT: | Swing
of 8% to ALP, ALP +4 * Tangney was a Coalition seat held by a Liberal member that lost preselection (nomination) for that seat. The sitting MP has chosen to run as an independent, but the seat should revert back to Coalition hands. |
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| Synopsis: After being relegated to three seats in 2010, the ALP enjoys improved fortunes in WA to the point of picking up the new seat of Burt, the swing seat of Hasluck and a pair more. The ALP will also provide some fight in Pearce and the independent bid of embattled MP Dr. Dennis Jansen in Tangney will further hurt the Liberals and Coalition. Finally, the WA National vote in Durack and O'Connor cannot be dismissed, and a win for the WA Nats is technically a loss for the coalition, as the WA Nats are not part of the Coalition. Fortunately, the incumbents appear to be solidly in place for re-election. | ||||
It was just two elections ago that Labor
appeared to be strong in South Australia. Once a tough state to crack,
especially during the John Howard years of 1996-2007 in which Labor was
limited to specific parts of Adelaide, the ALP managed to gain a
majority of seats (6-5) in South Australia in 2007. In 2010, as Labor
bled seats in NSW and QLD, South Australia appeared to firm up for the
ALP, and seats that should be fairly safe for the Coalition such as
Boothby and Sturt appeared plausible for the taking. In the 2013 defeat
of the Labor government, Labor lost Hindmarsh and saw the margins in
the five remaining seats get slashed dramatically. It would appear that
in 2016, a pitched fight between the Coalition and Labor would come
down to Hindmarsh and perhaps Boothby.
That was until Senator Nick Xenophon (a populist Senator whose personal vote in the 2013 election for the Senate easily got him re-elected and almost elected his collegue at the same time) chose to launch his own party. Initially thought as another Palmer's United or Katter's Australian Party that might pick up a few percent nationwide and maybe one seat in the House of Representatives, the Nick Xenophon Team is a potential second third party that could cohesively gain seats not just in the Senate (as a double dissolution reduces the votes for a quota by half in electing all twelve senators in each state at once rather than six), but as many as three to four lower house seats if the votes go their way (the NXT is polling in the high twenties in SA). As such, many safe seats that may appear out of play are actually very much in play. If Labor is to win government, they are going to need to hold on to their five seats, gain back Hindmarsh, and make a spirited fight for Boothby. If anything, South Australia may actually play a role in securing a hung parliament, especially if the Coalition bleeds seats to the NXT.
That was until Senator Nick Xenophon (a populist Senator whose personal vote in the 2013 election for the Senate easily got him re-elected and almost elected his collegue at the same time) chose to launch his own party. Initially thought as another Palmer's United or Katter's Australian Party that might pick up a few percent nationwide and maybe one seat in the House of Representatives, the Nick Xenophon Team is a potential second third party that could cohesively gain seats not just in the Senate (as a double dissolution reduces the votes for a quota by half in electing all twelve senators in each state at once rather than six), but as many as three to four lower house seats if the votes go their way (the NXT is polling in the high twenties in SA). As such, many safe seats that may appear out of play are actually very much in play. If Labor is to win government, they are going to need to hold on to their five seats, gain back Hindmarsh, and make a spirited fight for Boothby. If anything, South Australia may actually play a role in securing a hung parliament, especially if the Coalition bleeds seats to the NXT.
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| 11
seats in total, Margin of seats "in play": 10% Seats out of the margin "in play": Barker, Grey, Mayo, Sturt (all Coalition) |
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| ALP (1 seat "safe") | Port Adelaide | |||
| Coalition (no seats "safe") | There are no seats held by the coalition that are not considered "in play". | |||
| ALP Hold (4) | ALP Gain (1) | IND / 3P Gain (3) | Coalition Gain | Coalition Hold (2) |
| Adelaide Kingston Makin Wakefield |
Hindmarsh | Barker (NXT) Grey (NXT) Mayo (NXT) |
Boothby Sturt |
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| THE VERDICT: | Swing indeterminate due to 3P contest. ALP +1, NXT +3 | |||
| Synopsis: Seat by seat polling show the Coalition in deep trouble in normally safe seats. The NXT looks likely to pick off Grey and Mayo, and possibly Barker. Adelaide and Hindmarsh appear to be close contests, with Labor able to win both. | ||||
Tasmania has five seats, the fewest of
the six Australian states. Prior to 2013, Tasmania looked to be solid
Labor country, with Labor winning all five of Tasmania's seats. In
2010, Labor improved their standing in Tasmania in every seat except in
Denison, in which independent Andrew Wilkie managed to win in an open
seat contest. However, 2013 was not kind to Labor, and Tasmanian voters
took it out on Labor, reducing the ALP to just one seat (Franklin). For
the Coalition to hold on to government, it must hold on to some of it's
gains in Tasmania. A loss of all three Coalition seats to Labor would
be a disaster.
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| 5 seats in total, Margin of seats "in play": 5% | |||||
| ALP (no seats "safe") | The ALP's lone seat of Franklin is "in play". | ||||
| Coalition (no seats "safe") | None of the Coalition's seats are outside the margin "in play". | ||||
| Independent (1 seat "safe") | Denison (Independent) | ||||
| ALP Hold (1) | ALP Gain (2) | IND / 3P Hold | IND / 3P Gain | Coalition Gain | Coalition Hold (1) |
| Franklin | Bass Lyons |
Braddon | |||
| THE VERDICT: | Swing of 4.0% to ALP, ALP +2 | ||||
| Synopsis: The ALP should win Lyons back without much difficulty, but Bass is a tough challenge the ALP would be lucky to prevail in. Braddon is too far out of reach, as although it is within the swing, the local MP appears to be popular enough to withstand the swing. | |||||
The
Northern Territory has just two seats in the Australian House of
Representatives: the urban/suburban seat of Solomon, covering most of
Darwin/Palmerston area, and the outback seat of Lingiari, which covers
the vast majority of the Northern Territory. Both are battleground
seats, and both will be hotly contested. If Labor is to form a
government, they will need to pick off Solomon whilst holding Lingiari.
For the Coalition to hang on, they may need both seats, but holding on
to Solomon is a must.
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| 2 seats in total, Margin of seats "in play": 5% | ||||
| ALP (no seats "safe") | The ALP's lone seat of Lingiari is "in play". | |||
| Coalition (no seats "safe") | The Coalition's lone seat of Solomon is "in play". | |||
| ALP Hold (1) | ALP Gain (1) | IND / 3P Gain | Coalition Gain | Coalition Hold |
| Lingiari | Solomon | |||
| THE VERDICT: | Swing of 2% to ALP, ALP +1 | |||
| Synopsis: The ALP should manage enough gains in the vote due to NT voter's disgust with the Territorial government of the Country Liberal Party (part of the Coalition) to pick off Solomon. However, neither Lingiari or Solomon will be nice wins for the ALP as they will have to scrap for them. | ||||
The
Australian Capital Territory (ACT) has two seats, both located within
Canberra: Canberra and Fenner (originally named Fraser). Both are safe
Labor seats, and Labor would have to poll exceptionally poorly to have
any change of fumbling away either of these two seats. Neither appear
in play, so any realistic swing to Labor or the Coalition is purely for
all points academic.
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| 2 seats in total, Margin of seats "in play": 4% | ||
| ALP (2 seats "safe") | Canberra, Fenner | |
| ALP Hold | IND / 3P Gain | Coalition Gain |
| Canberra (safe, but bears repeating) Fenner (safe, but bears repeating) |
Really? (snark intended) | |
| THE VERDICT: | Swing of 2% to ALP, No Change in seats | |
| Synopsis: If the Coalition were to win either seat, they are well on their way to over 120 to 130 seats in the House. In an election that is trending into some seat gains for the ALP... that is not the direction to go to win seats here in the ACT. | ||
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| Australian Labor Party (ALP) | The
Coalition (LIB, NAT, LNP, CLP) |
The
Greens (GRN) |
Nick
Xenophon Team (NXT) |
Independents (IND, PUP, KAP) |
| 55 seats at dissolution | 90 seats at dissolution | 1 seat at dissolution | New Party | 4 seats at dissolution (1 PUP, 1 KAP, 2 IND) |
| 73 seats projected | 69 seats projected | 1 seat projected | 3 seats projected | 4 seats projected |
| Projected Outcome: Hung Parliament. Labor short by 3,
Coalition short by 7 Synopsis: Labor has been
polling even with the Coalition or just slightly ahead, and Turnbull as
Prime Minister is still fairly well favored over Bill Shorten. Labor
appears to have trouble winning enough marginal seats to win
government, but the appearance of the NXT as well as a spirited
challenge by Tony Windsor looks set to deny the Coalition the majority.
In addition, the Coalition will likely fall just behind Labor in total
seats, giving Labor a chance at forming another minority government.
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Picture of Australian House of Representatives Chamber is from J.J. Harrison and is available under a Creative Commons Share-Alike License.