So, what is the Mackerras Pendulum and what does it do?
The Mackerras pendulum is named for renowned Australian political scientist Dr. Malcolm Mackerras, and it essentially demonstrates the strength of a elected member's hold on a particular seat in the House of Representatives. The pendulum is arranged usually in two columns (for the two major political forces in Australia, the ALP and the Coalition), with the seats with the closest results listed at the top of each column, and the seats with the largest margins of victory listed at the bottom of each column. However, in recent years, the House of Representatives have had a robust crossbench of MP's not belonging to Labor or the Coalition. They are thus listed after the Labor Party (as none of the crossbenchers are currently giving confidence and supply to the government) in the opposition column.
In order to show how the Pendulum works, let's say that five seats on the Coalition side were won with less than 51% of the vote, or with a 1.0% margin or less. If Labor was to achieve a uniform swing of 1.0% in all seats, then it is expected that those five seats are to switch hands. If the Coalition was to achieve a swing of 1.0%, then the margins in these seats would increase by 1%, and would decrease the Labor margin in its seats by 1.0%. However, swings are never uniform, and while a national swing might be sufficient to win government, the extra support might be going to either increase the margins in safe seats already held by the opposition or to decrease margins in safe seats held by the Government in which the opposition had no shot to win anyway.
The pendulum also has a few quirks as well. Not all swings are ALP vs. Coalition. In cases in which the margin is versus another party or independent, that entity will be listed as 1.0 vs IND or 1.0 vs GRN. Also, redistributions have made seats that are held by one party notionally winnable by the other party. They will be marked with a negative sign before the swing (that means the incumbent member/party must make up that margin to keep the seat). Finally, the seat of Fairfax is held by the retiring MP Clive Palmer of the Palmer United Party. It is expected that the Coalition will win that seat back easily, and is denoted by an asterisk in the Crossbench pendulum. The Pendulum is as follows:
| COALITION -
GOVERNMENT 90 seats, 3 notionally Labor |
LABOR -
OPPOSITION 55 seats |
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| Seat Name | State/Territory | Swing | Seat Name | State/Territory | Swing |
| Barton Paterson Dobell Petrie Capricornia O'Connor Lyons Solomon Hindmarsh Braddon Banks Eden-Monaro Lindsay Page Robertson Deakin Macarthur Reid Bonner Gilmore Corangamite Durack La Trobe Bass Brisbane Forde Cowan Macquarie Dunkley Leichhardt Hasluck Burt Herbert Flynn Dickson Longman Boothby Casey Swan Dawson Bennelong Aston Ryan Bowman Hinkler Stirling Pearce Fisher Higgins Sturt Wannon Goldstein Kooyong Canning |
NSW NSW NSW QLD QLD WA TAS NT SA TAS NSW NSW NSW NSW NSW VIC NSW NSW QLD NSW VIC WA VIC TAS QLD QLD WA NSW VIC QLD WA WA QLD QLD QLD QLD SA VIC WA QLD NSW VIC QLD QLD QLD WA WA QLD VIC SA VIC VIC VIC WA |
(-4.4) (-0.3) (-0.2) 0.5 0.8 0.9 v. NatWA 1.2 1.4 1.9 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.9 v. NatWA 4.0 4.0 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 5.6 5.7 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.6 7.8 8.2 8.5 8.9 9.0 9.0 9.3 9.8 9.9 10.1 10.1 11.0 11.1 11.3 |
McEwen Lingiari Bendigo Lilley Parramatta Chisholm Moreton Richmond Bruce Perth Kingsford Smith Greenway Griffith Jajajaga Wakefield Melbourne Ports Brand Oxley Adelaide Issacs McMahon Rankin Ballarat Franklin Makin Blair Fremantle Hunter Werriwa Whitlam Hotham Shortland Canberra Corio Watson Holt Newcastle Kingston Batman Chifley Blaxland Cunningham Maribyrnong Lalor Fenner Fowler Sydney Calwell Port Adelaide Scullin Wills Gorton Gellibrand Grayndler |
VIC NT VIC QLD NSW VIC QLD NSW VIC WA NSW NSW QLD VIC SA VIC WA QLD SA VIC NSW QLD VIC TAS SA QLD WA NSW NSW NSW VIC NSW ACT VIC NSW VIC NSW SA VIC NSW NSW NSW VIC VIC ACT NSW NSW VIC SA VIC VIC VIC VIC NSW |
0.2 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.7 6.5 6.9 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.7 8.9 9.1 9.4 9.7 10.6 V. GRN 10.9 11.2 11.3 11.4 12.2 12.5 12.9 12.9 13.9 14.0 14.3 15.2 v. GRN 16.1 16.5 18.8 |
| Flinders Hughes McMillan Wright Moore Mayo |
VIC NSW VIC QLD WA SA |
11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8 12.4 12.5 |
CROSSBENCH Fairfax (PUP) * Indi (IND) Kennedy (KAP) Melbourne (GRN) Denison (IND) |
SEAT QLD VIC QLD VIC TAS |
PENDULUM 0.0 v. COA 0.3 v. COA 2.2 v. COA 5.3 v. ALP 15.5 v. ALP |
| McPherson Tangney Cowper Wide Bay Grey Hume Lyne Forrest Fadden Menzies Calare Warringah Cook North Sydney Gippsland Barker Groom Moncrieff Curtin Mackellar Wentworth Berowra Riverina New England Parkes Bradfield Murray Mitchell Farrer Maranoa Mallee |
QLD WA NSW QLD SA NSW NSW WA QLD VIC NSW NSW NSW NSW VIC SA QLD QLD WA NSW NSW NSW NSW NSW NSW NSW VIC NSW NSW QLD VIC |
13.0 13.0 13.2 13.2 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.8 14.4 14.4 15.0 15.3 15.7 15.7 15.8 16.5 16.5 18.0 18.2 18.8 18.9 19.0 19.0 19.5 19.9 20.9 20.9 21.4 21.7 22.3 23.7 |
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Picture of Australian House of Representatives Chamber is from J.J. Harrison and is available under a Creative Commons Share-Alike License.