Welcome to "THE VERDICT: Australia 2016" page. This webpage contains my projections for the Senate that will form the 45th Parliament of Australia. There are 76 seats, each state having twelve seats and each territory having two seats. In a standard election (provided the election is not held in a point of time that desyncronizes the House and Senate elections, such as an extremely early election), half of the senate seats from each state are up for election as well as all four territorial senate seats. Since this is a double dissolution election, all 76 seats are up for grabs.
How do I predict seats?
Rather haphazadly for the Senate, I'm afraid. Unlike the House of Representatives, in which a election is a full-preference election (voters must mark every box with a sequence of numbers) that usually yields a neat two-party or two-candidate preferred final tally, the Senate is a different election system. Voters may either pick above the line (effectively voting that party's preference ticket based on how they ranked their senate candidates) or below the line (delineate their own preferences). In the past, if a voter wanted to go below the line, they had to vote every box (just like the House), but were allowed a few sequencing errors before the vote was informal (doesn't count). Now, a voter needs to just pick at least twelve candidates for the vote to be formal (count), and once their preference list runs out, their vote is "exhausted". However, unlike previous elections, where a voter voting "above the line" would only have to pick one box (thus choosing the party's preference ticket for the whole ballot), they'll need to pick six (and each pick simply picks the ballot according to how each party preferenced their own Senate list, not the entire ballot)
Sounds complicated? That's the simple part. Because the House of Representatives are single-member electorates, there is only one winner. But the Senate is technically eight elections, rather than 76. Therefore, the system that is used is Optional Preferred Voting (explained above), with each party trying to get enough votes for a "quota". If a party gets 4 quotas, that essentially means they've won 4 seats. If a party gets 4.5 quotas, they have 4 seats, and are halfway to a fifth seat. In a standard senate election for a state (six seats), the two main political forces (Coalition and Labor) usually wins 4 or 5 of the 6 seats, and the final seat usually either goes to the Greens or another party. There are variations (and some can get quite wonky), so use the above example as a guideline.
I would go into the math, but I'm trying to keep this site mostly qualitative, and mostly informative. For more of the quantiative/math elements of the new Senate election system, I'd highly recommend Antony Green's Election Blog at abc.net.au.
One final note: Unlike the House, which tends to yield a decisive winner, the Senate rarely falls under one party's control. The last election in which this occured was in 2004, when the Coalition managed a scant one-seat majority in the Senate. That majority was lost in 2007.
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| 44th Parliament | Projected 45th Parliament | ||||||||||
| COA | COA | COA | COA | COA | COA | COA | COA | COA | COA | COA | GRN |
| ALP | ALP | ALP | ALP | GRN | LDP | ALP | ALP | ALP | ALP | ALP | COA? |
At the time of dissolution, New South Wales had six Coalition (4 Liberal, 2 National) Senators, 4 Labor Senators, 1 Liberal Democrat and 1 Green in the Senate. In all likelihood, The Coalition will get to 5 quotas, Labor 5 quotas, the Greens on one and the last seat being a fight for the Coalition, Labor and the Greens. If the Greens were to finish ahead of Labor, they might very well pick up that last seat, otherwise, the Coalition would eke just ahead. Given how even NSW is polling, I'm going to tip the last seat to the Coalition, but it's anyone's game.
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| 44th Parliament | Projected 45th Parliament | ||||||||||
| COA | COA | COA | COA | GRN | AMEP | COA | COA | COA | COA | COA | GRN |
| ALP | ALP | ALP | ALP | GRN | IND | ALP | ALP | ALP | ALP | GRN | ALP? |
At the time of dissolution, Victoria had four Coalition Senators (3 Liberal, 1 National), Labor Four, Greens Two, the Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party (AMEP) one and one John Madigan, who was elected as part of the Democratic Labor Party before turning independent. Victoria is more Labor friendly, so the state will likely return 5 Coalition, 4 Labor, 2 Greens and Labor having a track on the twelfth and final seat.
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| 44th Parliament | Projected 45th Parliament | ||||||||||
| COA | COA | COA | COA | COA | COA | COA | COA | COA | COA | COA | COA? |
| ALP | ALP | ALP | ALP | GRN | IND | ALP | ALP | ALP | ALP | GRN | ALP? |
Queensland had six Coalition (all six part of the Liberal National Party of Queensland), four Labor, one Green and one Glenn Lazarus (who was elected as a Palmer's United Senator before going Independent) in the Senate. QLD is likely to return 5 Coalition, 4 ALP, 1 Green for certain, but the last two seats are going to be where the fight is. My guess is one more for the Coalition, and probably Labor in the last seat with One Nation getting shut out, despite the lower threshold for a quota.
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| 44th Parliament | Projected 45th Parliament | ||||||||||
| COA | COA | COA | COA | COA | COA | COA | COA | COA | COA | COA | GRN? |
| ALP | ALP | ALP | GRN | GRN | PUP | ALP | ALP | ALP | ALP | GRN | COA? |
Western Australia had six Coalition (all Liberal), three Labor, two Greens and one Palmer's United representing the state in the Senate at the time of the election. I think the Coalition has a solid 5 seats, Labor has 4, the Greens 1 and in strong position to keep the the second seat, and the last seat going to the Coalition.
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| 44th Parliament | Projected 45th Parliament | ||||||||||
| COA | COA | COA | COA | COA | NXT | COA | COA | COA | NXT | NXT | GRN |
| ALP | ALP | ALP | FFP | GRN | GRN | ALP | ALP | ALP | NXT | NXT | COA? |
South Australia at the time of dissolution had five Coalition senators (all Liberal), three ALP senators, two Green senators, one Family First senator and one Nick Xenophon, who is now part of the Nick Xenophon Team. The NXT has been polling exceptionally well in South Australia, and are a force to possibly win seats in other states. As such, I see the Coalition winning 3 seats, the ALP 3, the NXT winning a whopping FOUR seats and the last two being a Green and a toss-up between the Coalition and Labor. I think the Coalition gets that last seat.
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| 44th Parliament | Projected 45th Parliament | ||||||||||
| COA | COA | COA | COA | GRN | GRN | COA | COA | COA | COA | GRN | GRN? |
| ALP | ALP | ALP | ALP | ALP | IND | ALP | ALP | ALP | ALP | ALP | IND? |
At the time of dissolution, Tasmania had 5 ALP, 4 Coalition (all Liberal), 2 Greens and 1 Jacqui Lambie, who was elected from Palmer's United before going independent. I think the Coalition has 4 solid seats, the ALP 5 solid seats, 1 solid Green seat with a strong chance at a second and Lambie just holding on.
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| 44th Parliament | Projected 45th Parliament |
| Coalition (COA) | Coalition (COA) |
| Labor (ALP) | Labor (ALP) |
The Northern Territory has two seats, one held by the Coalition and one held by Labor. Unless a major swing occurs (and even then, not likely), the situation will be unchanged after this election.
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| 44th Parliament | Projected 45th Parliament |
| Coalition (COA) | Coalition (COA) |
| Labor (ALP) | Labor (ALP) |
Like the Northern Territory, the Australian Capital Territory also has two Senators. The One-and-One of Coalition and Labor will continue after this election.
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| Australian Labor Party (ALP) | The
Coalition (LIB, NAT, LNP, CLP) |
The
Greens (GRN) |
Nick
Xenophon Team (NXT) |
Independents (IND, PUP, LDP, FFP) |
| 25 seats at dissolution | 33 seats at dissolution | 10 seats at dissolution | 1 seat at dissolution | 7 seats at dissolution (1 AEMP, 1 PUP, 1 FFP, 1 LDP, 3 IND) |
| 29 seats projected | 33 seats projected | 9 seats projected | 4 seats projected | 1 seat projected (1 IND) |
| Projected Outcome: No official Control. ALP needs 10 votes, COA needs 6 votes. | ||||
Picture of Australian House of Representatives Chamber is from J.J. Harrison and is available under a Creative Commons Share-Alike License.