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Welcome to "THE VERDICT: Australia 2016" page. Here you will find the summary of the results of my predictions.

NOTE: At this time, one seat remains inconclusive. The seat of Herbert is still too close to call. In addition, the Senate is still inconclusive beyond earned quotas. Therfore, I will not summarize the Senate Results until all seats are final.

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES PREDICTIONS
Seat Name KJ's Prediction Election Result Prediction Result
Banks ALP GAIN Coalition Hold INCORRECT
Barton ALP GAIN ALP Gain CORRECT
Bennelong COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Berowra COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Blaxland ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Bradfield COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Calare COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Chifley ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Cook COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Cowper COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Cunningham ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Dobell ALP GAIN ALP Gain CORRECT
Eden-Monaro ALP GAIN ALP Gain CORRECT
Farrer COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Fowler ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Gilmore COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Grayndler ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Greenway ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Hughes COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Hume COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Hunter ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Kingsford Smith ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Lindsay COALITION ALP Gain INCORRECT
Lyne COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Macarthur COALITION ALP Gain INCORRECT
Mackellar COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Macquarie COALITION ALP Gain INCORRECT
McMahon ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Mitchell COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
New England IND GAIN Coalition Hold INCORRECT
Newcastle ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
North Sydney COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Page COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Parkes COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Parramatta ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Paterson ALP GAIN ALP Gain CORRECT
Reid COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Richmond ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Riverina COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Robertson COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Shortland ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Sydney ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Warringah COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Watson ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Wentworth COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Werriwa ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Whitlam ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Prediction Accuracy: 42/47 or 89.36%

 

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES PREDICTIONS
Seat Name KJ's Predictions Election Result Prediction Result
Aston COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Ballarat ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Batman ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Bendigo ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Bruce ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Calwell ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Casey COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Chisholm ALP Coalition Gain INCORRECT
Corangamite ALP GAIN Coalition Hold INCORRECT
Corio COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Deakin ALP GAIN Coalition Hold INCORRECT
Dunkley COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Flinders COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Gellibrand ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Gippsland COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Goldstein COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Gorton ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Higgins COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Holt ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Hotham ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Indi INDEPENDENT IND Hold CORRECT
Issacs ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Jagajaga ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Kooyong COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
La Trobe COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Lalor ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Mallee COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Maribyrnong ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
McEwen ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
McMillan COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Melbourne GREEN Green Hold CORRECT
Melbourne Ports ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Menzies COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Murray COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Scullin ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Wannon COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Wills ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Prediction Accuracy: 34/37 or 91.89%




HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES PREDICTIONS
Seat Name KJ's Predictions Election Result Prediction Result
Blair ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Bonner COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Bowman COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Brisbane ALP GAIN Coalition Hold INCORRECT
Capricornia ALP GAIN Coalition Hold INCORRECT
Dawson COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Dickson COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Fadden COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Fairfax COALITION GAIN Coalition Gain CORRECT
Fisher COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Flynn COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Forde COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Griffith ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Groom COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Herbert COALITION Inconclusive TBD
Hinkler COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Kennedy KATTER'S KAP Hold CORRECT
Leichhardt COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Lilley ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Longman ALP GAIN ALP Gain CORRECT
Maranoa COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
McPherson COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Moncrieff COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Moreton ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Oxley ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Petrie ALP GAIN Coalition Hold INCORRECT
Rankin ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Ryan COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Wide Bay COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Wright COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Prediction Accuracy: 26 to 27/30 or 86.67 to 90.00%
One seat undecided: Herbert




HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES PREDICTIONS
Seat Name KJ's Prediction Election Result Prediction Result
Brand ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Burt ALP GAIN ALP Gain CORRECT
Canning COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Cowan ALP GAIN ALP Gain CORRECT
Curtin COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Durack COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Forrest COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Fremantle ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Hasluck ALP GAIN Coalition Hold INCORRECT
Moore COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
O'Connor COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Pearce COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Perth ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Stirling COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Swan ALP GAIN Coalition Hold INCORRECT
Tangney COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Prediction Accuracy: 14/16 or 87.50%



  

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES PREDICTIONS
Seat Name KJ's Prediction Election Result Prediction Result
Adelaide ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Barker NXT GAIN Coalition Hold INCORRECT
Boothby COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Grey NXT GAIN Coalition Hold INCORRECT
Hindmarsh ALP GAIN ALP Gain CORRECT
Kingston ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Makin ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Mayo NXT GAIN NXT Gain CORRECT
Port Adelaide ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Sturt COALITION Coalition Hold CORRECT
Wakefield ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Prediction Accuracy: 9/11 or 81.82%




HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES PREDICTIONS
Seat Name KJ's Prediction Election Result Prediction Result
Bass ALP GAIN ALP Gain CORRECT
Braddon COALITION ALP Gain INCORRECT
Denison INDEPENDENT IND Hold CORRECT
Franklin ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Lyons ALP GAIN ALP Gain CORRECT
Prediction Accuracy: 4/5 or 80.00%




HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES PREDICTIONS
Seat Name KJ's Predictions Election Result Prediction Result
Lingiari ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Solomon ALP GAIN ALP Gain CORRECT
Prediction Accuracy: 2/2 or 100.00%


 

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES PREDICTIONS
Seat Name KJ's Predictions Election Result Prediction Result
Canberra ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Fenner ALP ALP Hold CORRECT
Prediction Accuracy: 2/2 or 100.00%



Australian Labor Party
(ALP)		 The Coalition
(LIB, NAT, LNP, CLP)		 The Greens
(GRN)		 Nick Xenophon Team
(NXT)		 Independents
(IND, PUP, KAP)
55 seats at dissolution
73 seats projected		 90 seats at dissolution
69 seats projected		 1 seat at dissolution
1 seat projected		 New Party
3 seats projected		 4 seats at dissolution
(1 PUP, 1 KAP, 2 IND)
4 seats projected
Potentially 68-69 seats won
 Potentially 76-77 seats won 1 seat won
 1 seat won
 3 seats won
Overall Seat-By-Seat Accuracy: 133 to 134/150 or 88.67 to 89.33%.
Synopsis: Unlike last election, where the swing to the Coalition was both drastic and nearly uniform, this election proved to be a tight one, with seats falling that were not predicted to fall, and knife-edge marginals that refused to budge. It appears the Coalition will barely scrape by, but the Senate (which is nowhere near fully certain) does appear to be more hostile to both major parties.

Copyright 2011-2016 Kort Jackson for KortJackson.org, All rights to original content reserved.
Picture of Australian House of Representatives Chamber is from J.J. Harrison and is available under a Creative Commons Share-Alike License.