Welcome to KortJackson.org's coverage of the Australia 2019 election, with predictions by yours truly.
The composition of the 46th Parliament of Australia shall be decided by election on May 18, 2019.
So, how did we get to this election? In 2016, Malcolm Turnbull of the Coalition (a formal agreement of conservative leaning parties in Australia consisting of the Liberal Party, the Nationals, the Country Nationals and the Liberal National Party of Queensland) utilized a constitutional manuever that allowed him to call a double dissolution election, forcing not only the entire House of Representatives to face an election but also the entirety of the Australian Senate. The gambit barely worked, and the Coalition was returned with exactly seventy-six (76) seats: the bare majority required to govern outright. As for the Senate, the end result was an absolute mess.
To further complicate matters, issues began to arise regarding several parliamentarians citizenship status, of which the Constitution of Australia forbids those who want to serve in the House or Senate to hold dual citizenship. Several Senators and MPs resigned or were tossed from their offices as their elections were ruled invalid. The Turnbull government lost two seats initially in the House due to the crisis, but regained them back after by-elections, preserving their majority. A further row of resignations due to the crisis also took out a cross bencher and three Labor MP's (a fourth resigned due to personal reasons unrelated to the crisis) that set up a "Super Saturday" of five by-elections. While the Coalition had a shot to win two of them, Labor kept their four seats and the Centre Alliance MP was re-elected in her riding, effectively preserving the balance.
By 2018, the Liberal Party caucus grew impatient with Turnbull's leadership and the constant Labor advantage in the polls. Peter Dutton initially challenged Turnbull, but he repelled the leadership challenge and saw Mr. Dutton off, 48 to 35 votes. But a week later, a spill motion was requested by the party, and Turnbull decided he had enough. Scott Morrison prevailed in the Liberal Party leadership election, allowing him to become the 30th Prime Minister of Australia. The junior partner in the Coalition leadership (The Nationals) were also facing leadership troubles of their own, namely with Barnaby Joyce admitting to being in a relationship and fathering a child with a former staffer (while still technically married to his wife, albeit seperated). He absconded from the leadership a few months prior to the Liberal leadership roils and Michael McCormack was elected the leader of the Nationals, making him Deputy Prime Minister under the Coalition arrangement.
After the Liberal Party spills made ScoMo the Prime Minister, a National MP jumped ship, quasi-joining the Crossbench and technically driving the Morrison government into minority. Then Malcolm Turnbull resigned, and a independent won his seat, ensuring the Morrison government was in minority (and further slipped after Julia Banks left the party to become an independent).
May 18, 2019 was the final date ScoMo (Scott Morrison) could call a synchronized House Election + Half-Senate election, and he waited to the last second to do so, as a defeat in Victoria and a narrow win in New South Wales, both at the state level, haunt the Coalition to this day. While ScoMo has managed to close the gap from the disasterous 56-44 Newspoll result as he took over, the Coalition is still underwater, and the odds of ScoMo getting to govern for a term in his own right is looking rather bleak as the election occurs on Saturday, the 18th of May.
