Welcome to KortJackson.org's coverage of the Australia 2019 election, with predictions by yours truly.
The composition of the 46th Parliament of Australia shall be decided by election on May 18, 2019.
So how do elections work in the Australian Senate?
In Australia, Senators from
each state are elected for six year terms starting July 1 following the
election, with the terms staggered so that six senators are elected at
each election. The Territories (Australian Capital Territory and
Northern Territory) have two senators each, and are elected at every
election (three year terms). However, in 2016 a double dissolution
election was held, in which the entirety of the Senate was also renewed
as opposed to just half. In order to "re-stagger" the Senate, the
Parliament of Australia determined that the first six senators elected
in each state shall be entitled to their full six years, whereas the
last six senators in each state would face re-election with the 2019
Federal election alongside the Territorial Senators.
Normally (and even with double dissolution elections), the method to determine which parties or independents (and then whom specifically) shall have been duly elected is Single Transferrable Vote using a quota system. Voters may vote above the line (thus distributing their votes to individuals based on the party's ticket) or below the line (set up their own pattern on where their vote goes). While voting is compulsory, the voter need not fill in every box, and may determine when their vote exhausts). The quota needed for election is as follows:
Normally (and even with double dissolution elections), the method to determine which parties or independents (and then whom specifically) shall have been duly elected is Single Transferrable Vote using a quota system. Voters may vote above the line (thus distributing their votes to individuals based on the party's ticket) or below the line (set up their own pattern on where their vote goes). While voting is compulsory, the voter need not fill in every box, and may determine when their vote exhausts). The quota needed for election is as follows:
Number of
Votes Cast in the state / (divided) by the number of seats up plus 1
In a standard half-senate
elction held in conjunction with a House of Representatives election or
seperately on its own, the number to divide is seven (six seats plus
one = seven). Territorial Senators is always total votes cast in
territory divided by three. In a double dissolution, all twelve seats
in each state is up, so the dividing number is 13. The resulting number is the quota,
which is what a party or independent must obtain to be elected to a
seat. After the number of first preference votes is determined and the
quota is fixed, any parties that have obtained a quota shall have
earned that seat. Once every party/independent group has exhausted
their first quota, the process repeats until there is no parties/groups
left holding a quota (in addition, any excess votes not used to elect a
Senator (in excess of quota) transfers, but at a reduced rate each time
that is determinate on several factors too complex to explain here). If
the excess transfers create a new quota, the quota is filled and
another Senator is elected. If not, the candidate with the lowest votes
are eliminated and their votes are transfered. This process repeats
until a quota is established, another Senator is elected until all
seats are filled.
What if a
Senator was disqualified (citizenship, bankruptcy issues, etc)?
If a Senator is elected but
later is proven to have been ineligible to nominate for the Senate,
their election is ruled void and the ballot paper results are used in a
countback to find who should have been
elected if that person didn't exist on the ballot paper. The excluded
candidate's votes are not voided, but instead transferred to either the
next person in their party or to the voter's next intention. Usually,
this results in the next person on the party list earning the seat
(unless that list is exhausted, in which the countback will elect
someone else).
What if a
Senator resigns for other than electoral reasons?
Depending on the circumstances,
either a countback is still used or the state parliament must nominate
someone to take the vacancy. Unless impossible, the state must select
someone from the same party as the departing Senator.
So, who was elected from the
States/Territories, and who is up, and what are your predictions?
| NEW SOUTH WALES | ||
| First Six Elected (up in 2022) | Last Six Elected (up in 2019) | Predictions |
| Marise Payne (COA) | Concetta Fierravanti-Wells (COA) | ALP |
| Sam Dastayari (ALP) (b) Kristina Keneally (ALP) |
Doug Cameron (ALP) | Coalition |
| Arthur Sinodinos (COA) | Lee Rhiannon (GRN) (b) Mehreen Faruqi (GRN) |
ALP |
| Jenny McAllister (ALP) | John Williams (COA) | Coalition |
| Fiona Nash (COA) (a) Jim Molan (COA) |
Brian Burston (ONP, later UAP) | Coalition |
| Deborah O'Neill (ALP) | David Leyonhjelm (LDP) (b) Duncan Spender (LDP) |
Greens |
| Synopsis: The 2016 Double dissolution produced a Senate delegation of 5 Coalition, 4 ALP, 1 Green, 1 One Nation Party (who later jumped to the United Australia Party) and 1 Liberal Democratic Party. New South Wales is considered a "bellweather" state. Both Brian Burston and Duncan Spender are fighting for political survival here in NSW, and it's doubtful that either or survives. The ALP and Coalition should easily get 2 seats (the second of these Coalition seats going to the Nationals), the Coalition is likely tipped for a third and the Greens should get into the final seat on Labor preferences. | ||
| VICTORIA | ||
| First Six Elected (up in 2022) | Last Six Elected (up in 2019) | Predictions |
| Mitch Fifield (COA) | Jacinta Collins (ALP) (b) Raff Ciccone (ALP) |
ALP |
| Kim Carr (ALP) | James Patterson (COA) | Coalition |
| Richard Di Natale (GRN) | Gavin Marshall (ALP) | ALP |
| Bridget McKenzie (COA) | Derryn Hinch (Justice) | Coalition |
| Stephen Conroy (ALP) (b) Kimberley Kitching (ALP) |
Janet Rice (GRN) | Greens |
| Scott Ryan (COA) | Jane Hume (COA) | Justice Party (Hinch) |
| Synopsis: Victoria is considered to be Labor's best state, but in the 2016 double dissolution, Victoria elected 5 Coalition, 4 ALP, 2 Greens and Derryn Hinch from the Justice Party. The ALP and Coalition again should get two quotas each easily, with Labor on a path to three, but not quite enough to get there. The Greens vote ought to hold on just enough to keep Janet Rice in the Senate, and Hinch should have enough votes to snag that final sixth seat. | ||
| QUEENSLAND | ||
| First Six Elected (up in 2022) | Last Six Elected (up in 2019) | Predictions |
| George Brandis (COA) (b) Amanda Stoker (COA) |
Claire Moore (ALP) | Coalition |
| Murray Watt (ALP) | Ian McDonald (COA) | ALP |
| Pauline Hanson (ONP) | Larissa Waters (GRN) (a) Andrew Bartlett (GRN) (b) Larissa Waters (GRN) |
Coalition |
| Matt Canavan (COA) | Barry O'Sullivan (COA) | ALP |
| Anthony Chisholm (ALP) | Chris Ketter (ALP) | Coalition |
| James McGrath (COA) | Malcolm Roberts (ONP) (a) Fraser Anning (ONP, later KAP and CNP) |
Greens |
| Synopsis: In Queensland, the Coalition will likely have the edge over Labor, earning 3 seats to Labor's two, and the Greens should get in one quota (on Labor preferences), continuing the revived career of Larissa Waters. | ||
| TASMANIA | ||
| First Six Elected (up in 2022) | Last Six Elected (up in 2019) | Predictions |
| Eric Abetz (COA) | Jonathon Duniam (COA) | ALP |
| Anne Urquhart (ALP) | Carol Brown (ALP) | Coalition |
| Peter Whish-Wilson (GRN) | David Bushby (COA) (b) Wendy Askew (COA) |
Greens |
| Jacqui Lambie (JLN) (a) Steve Martin (JLN, later COA) |
Lisa Singh (ALP) | ALP |
| Stephen Parry (COA) (a) Richard Colbeck (COA) |
Catryna Bilyk (ALP) | Coalition |
| Helen Polley (ALP) | Nick McKim (GRN) | ALP |
| Synopsis: In Tasmania, Labor is in position to get three seats, with the Greens earning a quota in their own right and the Coalition gaining the two other seats. | ||
| SOUTH AUSTRALIA | ||
| First Six Elected (up in 2022) | Last Six Elected (up in 2019 | Predictions |
| Simon Birmingham (COA) | Anne Ruston (COA) | ALP |
| Penny Wong (ALP) | Alex Gallacher (ALP) | Coalition |
| Nick Xenophon (NXT) (b) Rex Patrick (NXT, later CA) |
David Fawcett (COA) | Centre Alliance |
| Cory Bernardi (COA, then CON) | Skye Kakoschke-Moore (NXT) (a) Tim Storer (NXT, later IND) |
ALP |
| Don Farrell (ALP) | Sarah Hanson-Young (GRN) | Coalition |
| Stirling Griff (NXT, then CA) | Bob Day (FFP) (c) Lucy Gichuhi (FFP, later COA) |
Greens |
| Synopsis: While the Coalition has done decently in South Australia, the Coalition will only be able to gain two seats, with Labor also on two seats and a seat going to the Centre Alliance and Greens each. | ||
| WESTERN AUSTRALIA | ||
| First Six Elected (up in 2022) | Last Six Elected (up in 2019) | Predictions |
| Mathias Cormann (COA) | Pat Dodson (ALP) | Coalition |
| Sue Lines (ALP) | Linda Reynolds (COA) | ALP |
| Scott Ludlam (GRN) (a) Jordon Steele-John (GRN) |
Chris Back (COA) (b) Slade Brockman (COA) |
Coalition |
| Michaelia Cash (COA) | Louise Pratt (ALP) | ALP |
| Glenn Sterle (ALP) | Rod Culleton (ONP) (c) Peter Georgiou (ONP) |
Coalition |
| Dean Smith (COA) | Rachel Siewert (GRN) | Greens |
| Synopsis: The Coalition tends to do very well in Western Australia and although Labor will make some additional House seats tougher, the Coalition should maintain their advantage over Labor here, 3-2 with the final seat held by the Greens. | ||
| NORTHERN TERRITORY | |
| Elected (up in 2019) | Predictions |
| Malarndirri McCarthy (ALP) | ALP |
| Nigel Scullion (COA) | Coalition |
| Synopsis: Due to the strength of the ALP and the Coalition (represented by the Country Liberals in NT), both parties have generally secured a quota in their own right without a need for preferences. In all likelihood, this "one and one" scenario will play out again, resulting in the status quo being preserved in the Territory. | |
| AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY | |
| Elected (up in 2012) | Predictions |
| Katy Gallagher (ALP) (a) David Smith (ALP) (d) |
ALP |
| Zed Seselja (COA) | Coalition |
| Synopsis: Due to the strength of the ALP and the Coalition, both parties have generally secured a quota in their own right without a need for preferences. In all likelihood, this "one and one" scenario will play out again, resulting in the status quo being preserved in the ACT. | |
A name in italics with a letter note indicates that they either:
(a) resigned or disqualified over dual citizenship
(b) resigned on own volition
(c) resigned or disqualified over bankruptcy law.
The replacements name will be in bold.
(d) While technically not retiring from Parliament, David Smith is attempting to transfer to the House of Representatives running for the new seat of Bean. This is counted as a "retirement". After the dissolution of Parliament, Mr. Smith resigned, but no appointee will be made as territorial senators take their offices immediately upon the returning of the writs.
An underlined name indicates the Senator is Retiring.
(a) resigned or disqualified over dual citizenship
(b) resigned on own volition
(c) resigned or disqualified over bankruptcy law.
The replacements name will be in bold.
(d) While technically not retiring from Parliament, David Smith is attempting to transfer to the House of Representatives running for the new seat of Bean. This is counted as a "retirement". After the dissolution of Parliament, Mr. Smith resigned, but no appointee will be made as territorial senators take their offices immediately upon the returning of the writs.
An underlined name indicates the Senator is Retiring.
