Welcome to KortJackson.org's coverage of the Australia 2019 election, with predictions by yours truly. The composition of the 46th Parliament of Australia shall be decided by election on May 18, 2019. To skip directly to the pendulum, click [[HERE]]. So, what is the Mackerras Pendulum and how does it work? The
Mackerras Pendulum is created and named for the well known Australian
political scientist and psephologist (someone who studies elections)
Malcolm Mackerras. The pendulum is usually rendered as a two columned
chart, with the seats held by the Government on the left side and the
seats held by the Opposition on the right side (and the Crossbench
seats are either listed seperately in a third column or after the
Opposition seats). The seats in each column are listed in order from
the smallest % swing for the opposing party/coalition to take it at the
top to the largest % swing need to take the seat (or the safest seats,
for short). While election swings are not uniform accross all seats,
the pendulum is helpful in determining how many seats are suceptible to
changing hands depending on how deep the average national swing is (or
the swing in that particular state or terrritory). However, there are
often cases of uneven swings, leading to safe seats that would be
expected to flip remaining in the incumbent party's hands, or even a
"safe" seat that somehow changes hands.
It is worth noting however, that the pendulum also takes in account when the swing to flip the seat is in reference to a third party (i.e. A Labor seat that is safe against the Coalition but under the threat of being flipped by the Greens). In this case, the party the swing is versus is listed. Why is Dunkley (and Corangamite) (two divisions in Victoria) holding a negative swing in the Coalition/Government column?
While Dunkley is currently
held by the Coalition and was won by them in 2016, a redistribution
took place due to Victoria and ACT gaining a seat (and South Australia
losing a seat; Queensland, Tasmania and Northern Territory also redistributed but did not add/lose
seats). The redistribution made Dunkley on paper, a notionally Labor
seat. As such, the seat on this chart is on the Coalition side as it
starts with the Coalition, but with a negative percentage as the
Coalition must overcome that deficit to hold the seat.Bean (ACT) and Fraser (VIC) are brand new seats held by no one. Why are they Labor seats in the pendulum?
While
Bean and Fraser are new seats, it has been determined by psephologists
that should those seats have existed in 2016, Bean would be held by the
ALP on a 8.9% swing and Fraser on a whopping 20.6% swing. Therefore, to
keep the pendulum continuous, I've allocated them to "start" on the ALP
(opposition) side.
|
|||||||
Copyright 2011-2019 Kort Jackson for KortJackson.org, All rights to original content reserved. |