Welcome to KortJackson.org's coverage of the Australia 2019 election, with predictions by yours truly.
The composition of the 46th Parliament of Australia shall be decided by election on May 18, 2019
[MACKERRAS PENDULUM HOME] [ENTIRE HOUSE PENDULUM]
So, what is the Mackerras Pendulum for the 2019 election?
| Incumbent Government THE COALITION (73 Seats) |
Opposition Australian Labor Party (70 Seats) |
|||||
| Division Name | Where? | % to flip | % to flip | Where? | Division Name | |
| Dunkley(a) |  |
-1.3% | .02% |  |
Herbert | |
| Corangamite (a) | |
-.03% | .6% vs. GRN | |
Cooper(b) | |
| Capricornia | |
.6% | .7% |  |
Cowan | |
| Forde | |
.6% | .8% | |
Longman | |
| Gilmore |  |
.6% | 1.1% | |
Lindsay | |
| Flynn | |
1.0% | 1.3% | |
Macnamara(b) | |
| Robertson | |
1.1% | 1.4% | |
Griffith | |
| Banks | |
1.4% | 1.5% |  |
Braddon | |
| Petrie | |
1.6% | 2.2% | |
Macquarie | |
| Dickson | |
2.0% | 2.3% | |
Issacs | |
| Hasluck | |
2.1% | 2.9% | |
Eden-Monaro | |
| Boothby |  |
2.8% | 3.3% | |
Perth | |
| Dawson | |
3.3% | 3.9% | |
Bendigo | |
| Bonner | |
3.4% | 4.0% | |
Lyons | |
| La Trobe | |
3.5% | 4.0% | |
Moreton | |
| Pearce | |
3.6% | 4.0% | |
Richmond | |
| Swan | |
3.6% | 4.2% | |
Hotham | |
| Leichhardt | |
4.0% | 4.8% | |
Dobell | |
| Casey | |
3.5% | 4.9% vs. GRN | |
Wills | |
| Cowper | |
3.6% vs. IND | 5.0% | |
Jagajaga | |
| Reid | |
4.7% | 5.3% | |
Bass | |
| Sturt | |
5.8% | 5.3% | |
McEwen | |
| Brisbane | |
6.0% | 5.8% | |
Lilley | |
| Stirling | |
6.1% | 6.1% |  |
Solomon | |
| Deakin | |
6.1% | 6.3% | |
Greenway | |
| Canning | |
6.8% | 7.1% | |
Burt | |
| Bowman | |
7.16 | 7.4% | |
Ballarat | |
| Flinders | |
7.2% | 7.5% | |
Freemantle | |
| Aston | |
7.6% | 7.7% | |
Parramatta | |
| Menzies | |
7.9% | 8.0% | |
Blair | |
| Monash(b) | |
8.0% | 8.1% | |
Lingiari | |
| Higgins | |
8.0% vs. GRN | 8.2% | |
Hindmarsh | |
| Wide Bay | |
8.3% | 8.2% | |
Werriwa | |
| Hinkler | |
8.4% | 8.3% | |
Barton | |
| Grey | |
8.5% | 8.3% | |
Macarthur | |
| Ryan | |
8.8% | 8.3% | |
Corio | |
| Fisher | |
9.2% | 8.6% | |
Kingsford Smith | |
| Hughes | |
9.3% | 8.9% |  |
Bean(d) | |
| Wannon | |
9.3% | 9.0% | |
Adelaide | |
| Wright | |
9.6% | 9.1% | |
Oxley | |
| Bennelong | |
9.7% | 9.4% | |
Maribyrnong | |
| Hume | |
10.2% | 9.9% | |
Shortland | |
| Fairfax | |
11.0% | 9.9% | |
Holt | |
| Moore | |
11.0% | 10.7% | |
Franklin | |
| Durack | |
11.1% | 10.7% | |
Paterson | |
| Tangney | |
11.1% | 10.9% | |
Makin | |
| Fadden | |
11.2% | 11.3% | |
Rankin | |
| Warringah | |
11.6% vs GRN | 11.4% | |
Brand | |
| Lyne | |
11.6% | 11.6% | |
Fenner | |
| McPherson | |
11.6% | 12.1% | |
McMahon | |
| Calare | |
11.8% | 12.5% | |
Hunter | |
| Forrest | |
12.6% | 13.2% | |
Canberra | |
| Goldstein | |
12.7% | 13.3% | |
Cunningham | |
| Kooyong | |
12.8% | 13.5% | |
Kingston | |
| North Sydney | |
13.6% | 13.7% | |
Whitlam | |
| Barker | |
14.3% | 13.8% | |
Newcastle | |
| Moncrieff | |
14.5% | 14.4% | |
Lalor | |
| O'Connor | |
15.0% | 14.7% | |
Gellibrand | |
| Parkes | |
15.1% | 15.3% | |
Sydney | |
| Groom | |
15.3% | 15.7% | |
Bruce | |
| Cook | |
15.4% | 15.8% vs. GRN | |
Grayndler | |
| Mackellar | |
15.7% | 17.5% | |
Fowler | |
| Maranoa | |
15.9% vs. ONP | 17.6% | |
Watson | |
| Berowra | |
16.4% | 17.9% | |
Spence (e) | |
| New England | |
16.4% | 18.3% | |
Gorton | |
| Riverina | |
16.4% | 19.2% | |
Chifley | |
| Mitchell | |
17.8% | 19.5% | |
Blaxland | |
| Gippsland | |
18.2% | 20.1% | |
Calwell | |
| Mallee | |
19.8% | 20.4% | |
Scullin | |
| Farrer | |
20.5% | 20.6% | |
Fraser(d) | |
| Curtin | |
20.7% | CROSSBENCH | |||
| Bradfield | |
21.0% | 1.2% vs. COA | |
Wentworth (IND) |
|
| Nichols(b) | |
22.3% | 2.3% vs. ALP |
|
Page(f) (COA) | |
| 3.4% vs. ALP | |
Chisholm (IND) | ||||
| 4.1% vs. COA | |
Indi (IND) | ||||
| 5.5% vs. COA | |
Mayo (CA) | ||||
| 11.1% vs. COA | |
Kennedy (KAP) | ||||
| 17.8% vs. ALP | |
Clark(c) (IND) | ||||
| 19.0% vs. COA | |
Melbourne (GRN) | ||||
Notes:
(a) A redistribution (akin to redistricting in the US) took place in Victoria, in which the Coalition-held divisions of Corangamite and Dunkley was made notionally Labor on paper. It is listed with a negative percentage indicating the Coalition must in that seat gain more than that swing to keep the seat.
(b) The same redistribution in Victoria also renamed four divisions. Batman was renamed Cooper, McMillan was renamed Monash, Melbourne Ports was renamed Macnamara and Murray was renamed Nicholls. The new names of these divisions are listed.
(c) A redistribution took place in Tasmania, which also renamed the Division of Denison to Clark. The new name is listed.
(d) The Australian Election Commission determined in 2017 that the seat allotments were to change for two states and the Australian Capital Territory. South Australia lost a seat, in which Port Adelaide was abolished. Victoria gained a seat, named Fraser. The Australian Capital Territory also gained a seat, named Bean. Both seats are considered notionally Labor, and are listed in the opposition column.
(e) The same redistrbution in South Australia that abolished Port Adelaide also reallocated the territory of that division to Wakefield, with the rural part of Wakefield being transferred to Grey and Barker. Wakefield was renamed Spence. The new name is listed.
(f) One crossbench member (in Page) is technically still a member of the Coalition, but sits on the crossbenches as a result of the Liberal Leadership spills in 2018. As such the seat of Page is considered on the Crossbench.
Also, redistributions took place in Queensland and the Northern Territory. No divisions were renamed but boundaries were adjusted in some seats.
(a) A redistribution (akin to redistricting in the US) took place in Victoria, in which the Coalition-held divisions of Corangamite and Dunkley was made notionally Labor on paper. It is listed with a negative percentage indicating the Coalition must in that seat gain more than that swing to keep the seat.
(b) The same redistribution in Victoria also renamed four divisions. Batman was renamed Cooper, McMillan was renamed Monash, Melbourne Ports was renamed Macnamara and Murray was renamed Nicholls. The new names of these divisions are listed.
(c) A redistribution took place in Tasmania, which also renamed the Division of Denison to Clark. The new name is listed.
(d) The Australian Election Commission determined in 2017 that the seat allotments were to change for two states and the Australian Capital Territory. South Australia lost a seat, in which Port Adelaide was abolished. Victoria gained a seat, named Fraser. The Australian Capital Territory also gained a seat, named Bean. Both seats are considered notionally Labor, and are listed in the opposition column.
(e) The same redistrbution in South Australia that abolished Port Adelaide also reallocated the territory of that division to Wakefield, with the rural part of Wakefield being transferred to Grey and Barker. Wakefield was renamed Spence. The new name is listed.
(f) One crossbench member (in Page) is technically still a member of the Coalition, but sits on the crossbenches as a result of the Liberal Leadership spills in 2018. As such the seat of Page is considered on the Crossbench.
Also, redistributions took place in Queensland and the Northern Territory. No divisions were renamed but boundaries were adjusted in some seats.
