Welcome to KortJackson.org's coverage of the Australia 2019 election, with predictions by yours truly. The composition of the 46th Parliament of Australia shall be decided by election on May 18, 2019. So, how did the election go? In short, an absolute shocker. The Morrison Government, in which polls indicated that although the Coalition had closed the gap somewhat but was still trailing, was shockingly returned, and will likely be in a majority government scenario... just. While Labor did very well in Victoria, and was able to pick up their notional gains of Corangamite and Dunkley (and the new seat of Fraser), Labor found itself losing seats in NSW, TAS and QLD. Queensland in particular turned harshly against Labor, and Labor lost two seats it could not afford to lose in Longman and Herbert. Labor was also shellacked in the Brisbane area, and came close to losing traditional Labor seats in QLD. By the Coalition holding (and gaining in QLD), it was the Coalition that had a path back to office. As for the other states (and territories), Labor easily held in the ACT (gaining the notional new seat of Bean), the NT (despite a swing against), and kept all its seats in South Australia and Western Australia (but could not gain Boothby in SA nor Swan in WA). One trifecta of results that probably was of great relief to many Australians was that Tony Abbott was bounced by an independent in Warringah, Clive Palmer blew through $60 million dollars and got... bupkis, and Fraser Anning can take his ultra-rancid rhetoric somewhere else than the Senate. So, without further ado, here's the predictions and score chart. The "state record" counts the correct/incorrect predictions in alpha order for the state only, the "Australia Record" counts the correct/incorrect predictions all the way to 151. Division Name KJ Prediction Result Correct? State Record Australia Record Banks ALP GAIN Coalition Hold 0-1 0-1 Barton ALP Hold ALP Hold 1-1 1-1 Bennelong Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 2-1 2-1 Berowra Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 3-1 4-1 Blaxland ALP Hold ALP Hold 4-1 4-1 Bradfield Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 5-1 5-1 Calare Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 6-1 6-1 Chifley ALP Hold ALP Hold 7-1 7-1 Cook Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 8-1 8-1 Cowper IND GAIN Coalition Hold 8-2 8-2 Cunningham ALP Hold ALP Hold 9-2 9-2 Dobell ALP Hold ALP Hold 10-2 10-2 Eden-Monaro ALP Hold ALP Hold 11-2 11-2 Farrer Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 12-2 12-2 Fowler ALP Hold ALP Hold 13-2 13-2 Gilmore ALP GAIN ALP GAIN 14-2 14-2 Grayndler ALP Hold ALP Hold 15-2 15-2 Greenway ALP Hold ALP Hold 16-2 16-2 Hughes Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 17-2 17-2 Hume Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 18-2 18-2 Hunter ALP Hold ALP Hold 19-2 19-2 Kingsford Smith ALP Hold ALP Hold 20-2 20-2 Lindsay ALP Hold Coalition GAIN 20-3 20-3 Lyne Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 21-3 21-3 Macarthur ALP Hold ALP Hold 22-3 22-3 Mackellar Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 23-3 23-3 Macquarie ALP Hold ALP Hold 24-3 24-3 McMahon ALP Hold ALP Hold 25-3 25-3 Mitchell Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 26-3 26-3 New England Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 27-3 27-3 Newcastle ALP Hold ALP Hold 28-3 28-3 North Sydney Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 29-3 29-3 Page "Coalition Hold" "Coalition Hold" 30-3 30-3 Parkes Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 31-3 31-3 Parramatta ALP Hold ALP Hold 32-3 32-3 Paterson ALP Hold ALP Hold 33-3 33-3 Reid ALP GAIN Coalition Hold 34-3 35-3 Richmond ALP Hold ALP Hold 35-3 35-3 Riverina Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 36-3 36-3 Robertson ALP GAIN Coalition Hold 36-4 36-4 Shortland ALP Hold ALP Hold 37-4 37-4 Sydney ALP Hold ALP Hold 38-4 38-4 Warringah IND GAIN IND GAIN 39-4 39-4 Watson ALP Hold ALP Hold 40-4 40-4 Wentworth IND Hold Coalition GAIN 40-5 40-5 Werriwa ALP Hold ALP Hold 41-5 41-5 Whitlam ALP Hold ALP Hold 42-5 42-5 Result: 42/47 (89.36%) Notes: Page is held by a Nationals (Coalition) MP who partially left the party and sat on the crossbench, but was renominated and was re-elected. Thus, this is a Coalition Hold. but with quotations to denote the oddity of the situation. Division Name KJ Prediction Result Correct? State Record Australia Record Aston Coaltion Hold Coaltion Hold 1-0 43-5 Ballarat ALP Hold ALP Hold 2-0 44-5 Bendigo ALP Hold ALP Hold 3-0 45-5 Bruce ALP Hold ALP Hold 4-0 46-5 Calwell ALP Hold ALP Hold 5-0 47-5 Casey Coaltion Hold Coalition Hold 6-0 48-5 Chisholm ALP GAIN Coalition Hold* 6-1 48-6 Cooper ALP Hold ALP Hold 7-1 49-6 Corangamite ALP GAIN ALP GAIN 8-1 50-6 Corio ALP Hold ALP Hold 9-1 51-6 Deakin Coaltion Hold Coalition Hold 10-1 52-6 Dunkley ALP GAIN ALP GAIN 11-1 53-6 Flinders IND GAIN Coalition Hold 11-2 53-7 Fraser ALP GAIN ALP GAIN 12-2 54-7 Gellibrand ALP Hold ALP Hold 13-2 55-7 Gippsland Coaltion Hold Coalition Hold 14-2 56-7 Goldstein Coaltion Hold Coalition Hold 15-2 57-7 Gorton ALP Hold ALP Hold 16-2 58-7 Higgins Coaltion Hold Coalition Hold 17-2 59-7 Holt ALP Hold ALP Hold 18-2 60-7 Hotham ALP Hold ALP Hold 19-2 61-7 Indi IND Hold IND Hold 20-2 62-7 Issacs ALP Hold ALP Hold 21-2 63-7 Jagajaga ALP Hold ALP Hold 22-2 64-7 Kooyong Coaltion Hold Coalition Hold 23-2 65-7 La Trobe ALP GAIN Coalition Hold 23-3 65-8 Lalor ALP Hold ALP Hold 24-3 66-8 Macnamara Green GAIN ALP Hold 24-4 66-9 Mallee Coaltion Hold Coalition Hold 25-4 67-9 Maribyrnong ALP Hold ALP Hold 26-4 68-9 McEwen ALP Hold ALP Hold 27-4 69-9 Melbourne Green Hold Green Hold 28-4 70-9 Menzies Coaltion Hold Coalition Hold 29-4 71-9 Monash Coaltion Hold Coalition Hold 30-4 72-9 Nicholls Coaltion Hold Coalition Hold 31-4 73-9 Scullin ALP Hold ALP Hold 32-4 74-9 Wannon Coaltion Hold Coalition Hold 33-4 75-9 Wills ALP Hold ALP Hold 34-4 76-9 Result: 34-4 (89.47%) Note: Chisholm was previous held by an independent who chose to contest a different seat. As the independent was previously from the Liberal Party (Coalition), the result reads as a Hold. Division Name KJ's Prediction Result Correct? State Record Australia Record Blair ALP Hold ALP Hold 1-0 77-9 Bonner Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 2-0 78-9 Bowman Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 3-0 79-9 Brisbane Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 4-0 80-9 Capricornia ALP GAIN Coalition Hold 4-1 80-10 Dawson Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 5-1 81-10 Dickson ALP GAIN Coalition Hold 5-2 81-11 Fadden Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 6-2 82-11 Fairfax Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 7-2 83-11 Fisher Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 8-2 84-11 Flynn ALP GAIN Coalition Hold 8-3 84-12 Forde ALP GAIN Coalition Hold 8-4 84-13 Griffith ALP Hold ALP Hold 9-4 85-13 Groom Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 10-4 86-13 Herbert ALP Hold Coalition GAIN 10-5 86-14 Hinkler Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 11-5 87-14 Kennedy Katter's Hold Katter's Hold 12-5 88-14 Leichhardt Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 13-5 89-14 Lilley ALP Hold IN DOUBT 14-5 90-14 Longman ALP Hold Coalition GAIN 14-6 90-15 Maranoa Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 15-6 91-15 McPherson Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 16-6 92-15 Moncrieff Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 17-6 93-15 Moreton ALP Hold ALP Hold 18-6 94-15 Oxley ALP Hold ALP Hold 19-6 95-15 Petrie ALP GAIN Coalition Hold 19-7 95-16 Rankin ALP Hold ALP Hold 20-7 96-16 Ryan Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 21-7 97-16 Wide Bay Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 22-7 98-16 Wright Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 23-7 99-16 Result: 23-7 (76.67%) Division Name KJ's Prediction Result Correct? State Record Australia Record Brand ALP Hold ALP Hold 1-0 100-16 Burt ALP Hold ALP Hold 2-0 101-16 Canning Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 3-0 102-16 Cowan ALP Hold ALP Hold* 4-0 103-16 Curtin Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 5-0 104-16 Durack Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 6-0 105-16 Forrest Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 7-0 106-16 Fremantle ALP Hold ALP Hold 8-0 107-16 Hasluck ALP GAIN Coalition Hold 8-1 107-17 Moore Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 9-1 108-17 O'Connor Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 10-1 109-17 Pearce Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 11-1 110-17 Perth ALP Hold ALP Hold 12-1 111-17 Stirling Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 13-1 112-17 Swan Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 14-1 113-17 Tangney Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 15-1 114-17 Result: 15-1 (93.75%) Division Name KJ's Prediction Result Correct? State Record Australia Record Adelaide ALP Hold ALP Hold 1-0 115-17 Barker Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 2-0 116-17 Boothby Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 3-0 117-17 Grey Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 4-0 118-17 Hindmarsh ALP Hold ALP Hold 5-0 119-17 Kingston ALP Hold ALP Hold 6-0 120-17 Makin ALP Hold ALP Hold 7-0 121-17 Mayo CA Hold CA Hold 8-0 122-17 Spence ALP Hold ALP Hold 9-0 123-17 Sturt Coalition Hold Coalition Hold 10-0 124-17 Result: 10/10 (100.00%) Division Name KJ's Prediction Result Correct? State Record Australia Record Bass ALP Hold Coalition GAIN 0-1 124-18 Braddon ALP Hold Coalition GAIN 0-2 124-19 Clark IND Hold IND Hold 1-2 125-19 Franklin ALP Hold ALP Hold 2-2 126-19 Lyons ALP Hold ALP Hold 3-2 127-19 Result: 3-2 (60.00%) Division Name KJ's Prediction Result Correct? Territory Record Australia Record Lingiari ALP Hold ALP Hold 1-0 128-19 Solomon ALP Hold ALP Hold 2-0 129-19 Result: 2-0 (100.00%) Division Name KJ's Prediction Result Correct? Territory Record Australia Record Bean ALP GAIN ALP GAIN 1-0 130-19 Canberra ALP Hold ALP Hold 2-0 131-19 Fenner ALP Hold ALP Hold 3-0 132-19 Result: 3-0 (100.00%)
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