KJ.org :: AUSTRALIA 2019

Here, you will find my prediction for the House of Represenatives elections in 2019 for Australia. Before I get into the predictions, here's how I set up the predictions:

First, I break down the analysis state-by-state. Rather than a huge pendulum chart of 150 seats, I break this down into a smaller number of seats per state. Granted, states like New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria are still a little unwieldy, it's easier to follow.

Second, in the past I attempted to predict a swing range and only covered the seats in that range, writing the other seats as automatically safe. For 2019, I changed this approach: I still predict a swing, but I include all seats in the table.

Finally, I break it all down at the end with how many seats each party has.

Before we begin, it may be a good idea to see who has decided to retire from the House as of this election. Go [[HERE]].

So let's begin!


State Briefing: New South Wales holds nearly 1/3 of the divisions of the House of Representatives (47). Whomever wins the most seats in NSW's federal parliamentary delegation usually wins the election and forms government. Usually. 2016 proved to be a odd exception, as Labor won the most seats out of the state, but the Coalition managed to scrap back to power by a single seat. The current Prime Minister (Scott Morrison) also hails from NSW, and is hoping the close victory the Coalition won in the state election earlier this year provides some crucial sandbagging to marginal seats, and perhaps go on offense and win back seats like Lindsay, which had a troubled incumbent choosing not to stand for re-election. If Labor is to win election, they will need to hold their own and gain a few seats here. A interesting development is that Tony Abbott appears to be in major trouble in Warringah, in which an independent might strip him of his seat.
ALP Hold	ALP Gain	3P/IND Hold	3P/IND Gain	Coalition Gain	Coalition Hold
Barton Blaxland Chifley Cunningham Dobell Eden-Monaro Fowler Grayndler Greenway Hunter Kingsford Smith Lindsay Macarthur Macquarie McMahon Newcastle Paramatta Paterson Richmond Shortland Sydney Watson Werriwa Whitlam	Banks Gilmore Reid Robertson	Page (IND COA)* Wentworth (IND)	Cowper (IND) Warringah (IND)	None	Bennelong Berowra Bradfield Calare Cook Farrer Hughes Hume Lyne Mackellar Mitchell New England North Sydney Parkes Riverina
Swing: ~5.0 to ALP		ALP: 28 (+4), Independent: 3 (+2), Coalition: 15 (-6), Independent Coalition: 1


State Briefing: Victoria is the next largest state in population, and gained a seat in representation to a total of 38 seats. While NSW tends to be a bellweather, Victoria is favorable ground to Labor. The opposition leader, Bill Shorten, hails from Victoria and is looking to pick up at least two seats thanks to a favorable redistribution (Corangamite and Dunkley) as well as gain the new seat of Fraser. Labor will also look to push to gain additional seats here, and polls show that Labor's path to exit the wilderness of opposition after six years will likely run through Victorian seats.
ALP Hold	ALP Gain	3P/IND Hold	3P/IND Gain	Coalition Gain	Coalition Hold
Ballarat Bendigo Bruce Calwell Cooper Corio Gellibrand Gorton Holt Hotham Issacs Jagajaga Lalor Maribyrnong McEwen Scullin Wills	Chisholm Corangamite Dunkley Fraser La Trobe	Indi (IND) Melbourne (GRN)	Flinders (IND) Macnamara (GRN)	None	Aston Casey Deakin Gippsland Goldstein Higgins Kooyong Mallee Menzies Monash Nicholls Wannon
Swing: ~4.0 to ALP		ALP: 22 (+4), Independents: 2 (+1), Greens: 2 (+1), Coalition: 12 (-4) Note: Julia Banks (IND) is running in Flinders as opposed to Chisholm. I predict the ALP will regain Chisholm and Ms. Banks to be successful in her challenge, thus counting Flinders as a IND gain.