Welcome to KortJackson.org's coverage of the Australia 2022 election, with predictions by yours truly.
The composition of the 47th Parliament of Australia shall be decided by election on May 21, 2022
[MACKERRAS PENDULUM HOME] [ENTIRE HOUSE PENDULUM]
So, what is the Mackerras Pendulum for the 2019 election?
| Incumbent Government THE COALITION (74 Seats) |
Opposition Australian Labor Party (69 Seats) |
|||||
| Division Name | Where? | % to flip | % to flip | Where? | Division Name | |
| Bass |  |
0.4% | 0.2% |  |
Macquarie | |
| Chisholm |  |
0.5% | 0.4% | |
Eden-Monaro | |
| Wentworth |  |
1.3% vs. IND | 0.6% | |
Lilley | |
| Boothby |  |
1.4% | 0.9% |  |
Cowan | |
| Braddon | |
3.1% | 1.0% | |
Corangamite | |
| Reid | |
3.2% | 1.2% | |
Blair | |
| Longman | |
3.3% | 1.5% | |
Dobell | |
| Swan | |
3.3% | 1.9% | |
Moreton | |
| Higgins | |
3.7% | 2.6% | |
Gilmore | |
| Leichhardt | |
4.2% | 2.7% | |
Dunkley | |
| Robertson | |
4.2% | 2.8% | |
Greenway | |
| Casey | |
4.6% | 2.9% |
|
Griffith |
|
| Dickson | |
4.6% | 3.0% |
|
Hunter | |
| Deakin | |
4.7% | 3.1% |  |
Solomon | |
| Brisbane | |
4.9% | 3.2% | |
Perth | |
| Lindsay | |
5.0% | 3.5% | |
Paramatta | |
| Pearce | |
5.2% | 4.1% | |
Richmond | |
| La Trobe | |
5.5% | 4.4% | |
Shortland | |
| Flinders | |
5.6% | 5.0% | |
Paterson | |
| Kooyong | |
5.6% vs. GRN | 5.2% | |
Lyons | |
| Hasluck | |
5.8% | 5.3% | |
McEwen | |
| Ryan | |
6.0% | 5.4% | |
Burt | |
| Banks | |
6.3% | 5.5% | |
Lingiari | |
| Cowper | |
6.8% vs. IND | 5.5% | |
Werriwa | |
| Sturt | |
6.9% | 5.9% | |
Jagajaga | |
| Monash | |
6.9% | 6.1% | |
Macnamara | |
| Bennelong | |
6.9% | 6.4% | |
Issacs | |
| Menzies | |
7.0% | 6.4% | |
Oxley | |
| Bonner | |
7.4% | 6.4% | |
Rankin | |
| Goldstein | |
7.8% | 6.5% | |
Hindmarsh | |
| Herbert | |
8.4% | 6.6% | |
McMahon | |
| Petrie | |
8.4% | 6.7% | |
Brand | |
| Forde | |
8.6% | 6.9% | |
Fremantle | |
| Flynn | |
8.7% | 7.3% | |
Bruce | |
| North Sydney | |
9.3% | 7.5% |  |
Bean | |
| Page | |
9.4% | 8.2% | |
Adelaide | |
| Tangney | |
9.5% | 8.2% vs. GRN | |
Wills | |
| Aston | |
10.1% | 8.4% | |
Macarthur | |
| Wannon | |
10.2% | 8.8% | |
Kingsford Smith | |
| Bowman | |
10.2% | 8.9% | |
Holt | |
| Farrer | |
10.9% vs. IND | 8.9% | |
Bendigo | |
| Canning | |
11.6% | 9.4% | |
Barton | |
| Moore | |
11.6% | 9.7% | |
Makin | |
| McPherson | |
12.2% | 10.2% | |
Hawke (a) | |
| Capricornia | |
12.4% | 10.3% | |
Ballarat | |
| Fisher | |
12.7% | 10.3% | |
Maribyrnong | |
| Hume | |
13.0% | 10.3% | |
Corio | |
| Wide Bay | |
13.1% | 10.6% | |
Fenner | |
| Mackellar | |
13.2% | 10.9% | |
Whitlam | |
| Calare | |
13.3% | 11.2% | |
Hotham | |
| Grey | |
13.3% | 11.9% | |
Kingston | |
| Fairfax | |
13.4% | 12.2% | |
Franklin | |
| Durack | |
13.5% | 12.4% | |
Chifley | |
| Curtin | |
14.0% | 12.4% | |
Lalor | |
| Fadden | |
14.2% | 13.0% | |
Gellibrand | |
| New England | |
14.4% vs. IND | 13.4% | |
Cunningham | |
| Hinkler | |
14.5% | 13.5% | |
Watson | |
| Forrest | |
14.6% | 13.8% | |
Newcastle | |
| Wright | |
14.6% | 14.0% | |
Fowler | |
| Lyne | |
15.2% | 14.1% | |
Spence (c) | |
| Moncrieff | |
15.4% | 14.3% | |
Gorton | |
| O'Connor | |
15.4% | 14.6% vs. GRN | |
Cooper | |
| Berowra | |
15.6% | 14.7% | |
Blaxland | |
| Mallee | |
15.7% | 16.3% vs. GRN | |
Grayndler | |
| Bradfield | |
16.6% | 17.1% | |
Canberra | |
| Gippsland | |
16.7% | 18.1% | |
Fraser | |
| Parkes | |
16.9% | 18.7% | |
Sydney | |
| Groom | |
17.2% | 19.6% | |
Calwell | |
| Mitchell | |
18.6% | 21.7% | |
Scullin | |
| Barker | |
18.9% | ||||
| Cook | |
19.0% | CROSSBENCH | |||
| Riverina | |
19.5% | 1.4% vs. COA | |
Indi (IND) |
|
| Nichols | |
20.0% | 5.1% v. COA |
|
Mayo (CA) | |
| Maranoa | |
22.5% vs. ONP | 7.2% v. COA | |
Warringah (IND) | |
| 9.9% (as COA) | |
Hughes (UAP) (b) | ||||
| 13.3% vs. COA | |
Kennedy (KAP) | ||||
| 14.6% as COA | |
Dawson (ONP) (b) | ||||
| 21.8% vs. COA | |
Melbourne (GRN) | ||||
| 22.1% vs. ALP | |
Clark (IND) | ||||
Notes:
(a) A redistribution took place in which the seat allotments changed for Western Australia (down one, Sterling was abolished) and Victoria (up one, Hawke was created). Hawke is notionally Labor, and is located in the pendulum as such.
(b) Craig Kelly (Hughes) and George Christensen (Dawson) won their seats in 2019 as members of the Coalition, but defected to the United Australia Party and One Nation respectively. Hughes and Dawson are listed on the crossbench, but with the original results from 2019 (thus no swing vs. another party)
(c) Nick Champion, the MP for Spence, resigned to successfully run for a House of Assembly seat for South Australia's state parliament. Because this vacancy occurred too close to the election, a by-election was not declared. The margin for the seat is listed as of the 2019 result, and is anticipated to stay in Labor's column.
(a) A redistribution took place in which the seat allotments changed for Western Australia (down one, Sterling was abolished) and Victoria (up one, Hawke was created). Hawke is notionally Labor, and is located in the pendulum as such.
(b) Craig Kelly (Hughes) and George Christensen (Dawson) won their seats in 2019 as members of the Coalition, but defected to the United Australia Party and One Nation respectively. Hughes and Dawson are listed on the crossbench, but with the original results from 2019 (thus no swing vs. another party)
(c) Nick Champion, the MP for Spence, resigned to successfully run for a House of Assembly seat for South Australia's state parliament. Because this vacancy occurred too close to the election, a by-election was not declared. The margin for the seat is listed as of the 2019 result, and is anticipated to stay in Labor's column.
